The Texas Longhorns had been playing with fire for the last several weeks, and it finally caught up to them against the Georgia Bulldogs last week, resulting in a 35-10 loss.
Now, the Longhorns are on the outside looking in of the College Football Playoff, and it would take a minor miracle for them to get in with three losses. But even before that, can they take care of business against a struggling Arkansas Razorbacks squad on November 22?
My Arkansas vs. Texas predictions and college football picks explain why that’s easier said than done.
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Arkansas vs Texas prediction
Arkansas vs Texas best bet: Arkansas +8.5 (-110)
Anyone paying attention to the Texas Longhorns the last several weeks saw what was coming in last week’s loss to Georgia.
The Longhorns looked lucky to be 7-2 heading into that matchup. Texas probably should have lost to Kentucky, definitely should have lost to Mississippi State, and then narrowly avoided a massive collapse against Vanderbilt.
The problem has and always has been Arch Manning. The Longhorns' much-hyped QB has his uncle Peyton’s ducks with none of the accuracy, timing, or anticipation, and Texas has survived at this point on the talent of its skill position players.
Overall, the offense is a mess. Texas enters this week’s matchup against the Arkansas Razorbacks with an offense ranked 95th in the nation in offensive success rate.
Now, the Razorbacks are in the midst of an ugly eight-game losing streak, but the offense hasn’t been the problem. Arkansas QB Taylen Green has been electric, throwing for 2,537 yards with 19 touchdowns while rushing for another 717 yards and seven scores. Arkansas enters this game ranked 18th in EPA per play and 11th in offensive success rate.
While Texas has a very good defense, you can throw on it a bit, with the Longhorns ranking 68th in success rate on dropbacks.
Despite the losing streak, the Razorbacks haven’t called it quits this season. Seven of those eight losses have been by one possession and a combined 26 points.
Texas might win on talent alone thanks to a suspect Arkansas defense, but the Hogs have kept fighting all season. I don’t expect that to change this week.
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Arkansas vs Texas same-game parlay
If Arkansas covers, it means Taylen Green has had another good game. The threat of him being able to tuck it and run is what makes him so dangerous, but it’s his arm that will carry the Razorbacks here.
Texas has allowed multiple touchdown passes in three straight games, and Green’s threat to run will open things up for him to make it four straight.
While I'm showering Arkansas with love here, I’ve got to note a defense that ranks 122nd in success rate and 127th against the rush.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Texas just tries to win this game on the ground. Texas has been at its best when Tre Wisner is rolling.
Arkansas vs Texas SGP
- Arkansas +8.5
- Taylen Green Over 1.5 touchdown passes
- Quintrevion Wisner Over 71.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Go Hogs
Let's just make one tweak here to make this a deep ball: switch Arkansas from covering the spread to winning outright, in hopes Texas puts up a lackluster performance after its CFP hopes were dashed last week.
Arkansas vs Texas SGP
- Arkansas moneyline
- Taylen Green Over 1.5 touchdown passes
- Quintrevion Wisner Over 71.5 rushing yards
Arkansas vs Texas odds
- Spread: Arkansas +8.5 | Texas -8.5
- Moneyline: Arkansas +265 | Texas -330
- Over/Under: Over 57.5 | Under 57.5
Arkansas vs Texas trend to know
Arkansas has covered the first-half spread in 10 of their last 13 games for +6.50 Units and a 44% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Arkansas vs Texas.
How to watch Arkansas vs Texas
| Location | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date | Saturday, November 22, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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