Forget the offseason noise from the 18- to 23-year-olds on either side — this is the season opener.
Both Alabama and Florida State have been itching to take the field, but only one looks truly ready to break out.
With a clear edge in talent and a coaching advantage, Alabama comes in better prepared.
My Alabama vs. Florida State predictions expect the Tide to roll.
Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, August 30.
Alabama vs Florida State prediction
Alabama vs Florida State Best bet: Alabama -13.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Get ready to learn Kalen DeBoer, national media.
Get ready to learn Kalen DeBoer, SEC fans.
And this week, get ready to learn Kalen DeBoer, Florida State.
The Seminoles will be improved this season. Their long-term trends can still be debated, but in 2025, Florida State will be better than in 2024.
Then again, that bar is about as high as a nickel in the hallway.
Unfortunately for FSU, Alabama is going to be much better in 2025 than it was in 2024. The Tide were pretty good in 2024, going 9-3 in the regular season and lingering in the SEC title conversation until they laid a dud at Oklahoma the weekend before Thanksgiving.
DeBoer has a proven track record of three-win improvements in his second season at every one of his stops as a head coach. You do not have to be good at math to see what that could mean this year after last season’s 9-3.
Getting Ryan Grubb back in the fold as offensive coordinator should only further that thought, particularly with Ty Simpson’s arm now behind center. Jalen Milroe was a fun quarterback, but he was not built for DeBoer’s and Grubb’s efficiency-based passing offense.
Alabama vs Florida State same-game parlay
Jam Miller is a wonderful running back, but Alabama should hardly miss a beat turning to Richard Young in Miller’s place.
Furthermore, Young will often face a light box as opponents have to devote a safety to covering Ryan Williams in just about any scenario.
Bet this Alabama vs. Florida State SGP now at FanDuel!
Our deep-ball SGP: Roll Tide
The unusual confluence of Simpson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns and Simpson Under 249.5 passing yards, not to mention the Over 50.5 total points, is a nod to Alabama's defense.
It should set up the Tide with a couple of short or reasonable fields, allowing scores but not necessarily gross yardage.
Alabama vs Florida State moneyline prediction
That Alabama -630 moneyline is pretty steep, but it should not be doubted. To some degree, the Tide laying that egg at Oklahoma late last season should serve as a reminder to both DeBoer and the locker room to never let focus stray.
New coaching regimes often need that reminder for the locker room.
Alabama vs Florida State spread prediction
As long as this spread sits within two touchdowns, the choice should be siding with Alabama. If it climbs to +14.5, the worry of a backdoor touchdown in a blowout should slow down any bet.
The Seminoles are reliant on transfers for their offensive line, a mistake, as well at receiver. That latter possibility yielded some talent that could capitalize late.
Alabama vs Florida State Over/Under prediction
That thought of a backdoor cover is also further incentive to grab the Over, especially as long as it stays below the key number of 51.
Alabama vs Florida State odds
- Alabama vs. Florida State spread: Florida State +13.5
- Alabama vs. Florida State moneyline: Alabama -630, Florida State +450
- Alabama vs. Florida State Over/Under: 50.5
Alabama vs Florida State betting trend to know
The Crimson Tide went 4-1 against the spread in their last five regular season games. Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs Florida State.
How to watch Alabama vs Florida State
| Location | Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date | Saturday, August 30, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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