Plenty of 8.5-point underdogs win. The Miami Hurricanes won as 7.5-point underdogs just two weeks ago. It is not at all inconceivable that the Hurricanes could upset the juggernaut that is the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers.
Is it likely? Of course not. The +275 moneyline odds at FanDuel suggest about a 27% chance of the Hurricanes winning.
However, my Miami vs. Indiana predictions focus on what it would take to turn that chance into a reality.
Three reasons why Miami will win the national championship
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1. Homefield advantage
It has acknowledged. No one has played for a national championship in their home stadium, have they? Georgia was not actually at home when it lost the national title in 2017, as Mercedes-Benz Stadium is more than an hour from Athens.
The Miami Hurricanes play their home games at Hard Rock Stadium, itself a 30-minute drive from campus. But there is value to playing in a familiar building, going through your familiar routine, and likely having a slight edge from the crowd.
The Hurricanes went 7-1 outright at home this season and 5-1 against the spread vs. FBS competition. The sole outright (and ATS) loss came against Louisville on a Friday night when Miami quarterback Carson Beck threw four interceptions.
While the Indiana Hoosiers do have a Top-5 passing defense, no one should expect Beck to throw four interceptions again. He has thrown only two picks in his last seven games on 195 attempts. Beck is more likely to avoid any turnovers than he is to commit multiple.
Scoff at the Hurricanes’ homefield advantage all you want, but something should be said for the luxuries of routine.
2. Limit Indiana’s Rushing Game
The Hoosiers had one genuine close call this season in their 13-10 win against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Buckeyes kept that game tight by cutting into Indiana’s rushing game.
The Hoosiers had just two explosive rush plays on 31 attempts, and only seven successful rushes among those 31 carries. That latter rate, in particular, stands out. At 22.6%, it was a far cry from Indiana’s full-season rushing success rate of 54.2%.
That's great news for Miami, with the No. 7 rushing defense success rate in the country, holding foes to just 35.4% in that regard, per CFB-graphs.com. Perhaps more impressively, the Hurricanes defense ranks No. 5 in the country in explosive rush rate, per gameonpaper.com.
If Miami can halt Indiana’s rushing attack, it might slow the Hoosiers’ offense enough to keep things interesting, just as Ohio State did.
3. Those Defensive Ends
Miami defensive ends Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor will go down as outright legends if the Hurricanes pull off this upset. The duo can turn a game upside down all on their own.
As great as Indiana’s offense is, that is in no small part because it can so often dictate the terms. Its offensive line is actually only middling, at least by these standards.
The Hoosiers rank only No. 25 in pressure rate allowed and No. 34 in damage done by sacks, per CFB-graphs.com. Combining those with Fernando Mendoza’s preference to avoid scrambling makes Indiana’s pass protection genuinely the worst among the teams Miami has faced in the CFB Playoff.
Bain and Mesidor could produce as many points as Miami’s offense if the oblong ball bounces right. If they create pressure early, look out for chaos.
