Wichita State vs Memphis Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's College Basketball Game

Things aren't going according to plan for Penny Hardaway and the Memphis Tigers. Jason Logan believes if Memphis is going to turn it around, it starts with defense against the Wichita State Shockers tonight.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Feb 26, 2026 • 11:16 ET • 4 min read

NCAAB

Match starts: 8 hrs
WICH
59 %
MEM
41 %
EXPERT PICK - TOTAL
u147.0 (-116)
Read Analysis
Memphis Tigers Head Coach Penny Hardaway NCAAM.
Photo By - Reuters Connect.

“Memphis Bleek” wasn’t just Jay-Z’s buddy in the early 2000’s. It’s also the state of basketball for Penny Hardaway’s program as the AAC schedule winds down.

The Memphis Tigers are mired in a four-game slide and sit at 12-15 with just four games left in the regular season. If the Tigers are going to get right (and possibly save Penny’s job), it starts with a solid showing against the Wichita State Shockers tonight.

Defense is the name of the game for UofM, and my Wichita State vs. Memphis predictions and college basketball picks see points at a premium inside FedExForum Thursday.

Wichita State vs Memphis prediction

Wichita State vs Memphis best bet: Under 147 (-116)

The Wichita State Shockers and Memphis Tigers have contrasting styles, with WSU running in a much lower gear than Memphis.
 
That slows the pace of this contest and makes for a defensive grinder between two teams ranked Top 70 in defensive rating. They met in late January, with Wichita State winning 74-59 — staying well below the closing total of 145.5 points.

The Tigers protect the paint and get their heels above the 3-point arc while the Shockers stymie transition attacks and limit fast break buckets.

Most game models have the final tally at 141 points or lower.

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Wichita State vs Memphis same-game parlay

This total has ticked up since opening, running up from as low as 143.5 O/U at some books. I’m buying back the move, with these teams able to counter each other’s strengths and game models all coming in well below the total. Keep an eye on the GTD status of Memphis big Aaron Bradshaw.

Wichita State hits the glass hard, and Memphis gives up too many boards, especially offensive rebounds. Karon Boyd averages almost six rebounds, and projections call for six or more boards tonight.

Julius Thedford has been a bright spot in a dark time for UofM. He’s put up 11 or more points in five of the last seven games while shooting almost 56% from the floor. Some models call for 11+ points tonight.

Wichita State vs Memphis SGP

  • Under 147
  • Karon Boyd Over 5.5 rebounds
  • Julius Thedford Over 10.5 points

Our beyond the arc SGP: “Shocking” in Memphis

If you don’t get the title of this SGP, you need more Marc Cohn in your life. Given the contrasting trajectory of these programs, WSU finally winning at FedExForum shouldn’t be a shocker.

Wichita State vs Memphis SGP

  • Under 147
  • Wichita State moneyline
  • Karon Boyd Over 5.5 rebounds
  • Julius Thedford Over 10.5 points

Wichita State vs Memphis odds

  • Spread: Wichita State +1 | Memphis -1
  • Moneyline: Wichita State -105 | Memphis -115
  • Over/Under: Over 147 | Under 147

Wichita State vs Memphis betting trend to know

The Tigers are 2-5 Over/Under in the last seven meetings with Wichita State at home. Find more college basketball betting trends for Wichita State vs. Memphis.

How to watch Wichita State vs Memphis

Location FedExForum, Memphis, TN
Date Thursday, February 26, 2026
Tip-off 9:00 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN2

Wichita State vs Memphis key injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst; has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike. Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet. He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason's first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns. On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast; WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio; he had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers; flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

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