The Virginia Cavaliers attempt to tighten their grip on the ACC standings when they visit the Florida State Seminoles in a college basketball betting battle of ranked teams Monday night.
Virginia and FSU have contrasting styles and will be trying to force their will upon each other in Tallahassee. The Cavaliers are among the premier defenses in the land, ranked fourth in points allowed (58.8 ppg), while the Seminoles attempt to bury foes under a wave of buckets.
These are our NCAA basketball betting free picks and predictions for Virginia vs. Florida State on February 15.
Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles betting preview
Injuries
Virginia: Kody Stattmann G (Out).
Florida State: Balsa Koprivica C (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Virginia 25-12-2 ATS in its last 39 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Virginia vs. Florida State.
NCAAB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThis ACC clash has a tight line at FanDuel, where Florida State opened -1 and made a couple of trips to -2, which is where the number is as of 4:20 p.m. ET. It's two-way point-spread action, with 51 percent of bets on visiting Virginia and 58 percent of money on host Florida State. The total is down to 127.5 from a 130 opener, with 71 percent of bets/63 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Virginia's defense is hitting new highs with depressing lows in opponent scoring, giving up a mere 55 points per outing during its current four-game winning streak. That includes sucking North Carolina into the "Swamp of Sadness" on Saturday, as the Cavaliers limited the Tar Heels to only 48 points on 34 percent shooting (including 2 for 16 from beyond the arc).
This is truly a clash in styles, with Florida State overwhelming foes on offense. The Seminoles have averaged more than 80 points per conference contest so far this season, cracking other ACC defensive stalwarts like Clemson and Louisville in recent outings.
Florida State's calling card is quick starts, scoring 38.4 first-half points per game (19th in the country). The Noles up that early output to 39.6 first-half points at home, including 41 points in the first frame in their overtime win against Georgia Tech on Saturday.
UVA, however, will not get sucked into a track meet early on, allowing a nation-low average of 24.6 first-half points on the season. The Cavs rank dead last in pace at KenPom, boasting a glacial tempo rating of 59.7 – once again the only program in the country with a sub-60 tempo.
Virginia won't give FSU any extra touches with the basketball, either, turning the ball over a microscopic 9.3 times per game and ranking 12th in defensive rebound percentage at 80.4. The Cavaliers also might not have to deal with FSU 7-footer Balsa Koprivica, who is questionable after rolling his ankle in shootaround Saturday morning.
Tony Bennett's UVA teams are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in its last six matchups with FSU, holding the Seminoles to 56 points or fewer in each of those victories.
PREDICTION: Virginia +1 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Florida State is one of the sharpest shooting teams in the land, making almost 39 percent of its looks from beyond the arc. That percentage lifts to almost 41 percent inside the Donald L. Tucker Center, where FSU records 8.8 triples per homestand – including a 12-for-25 night from distance in the win over Georgia Tech.
The Cavaliers do an OK all-around job protecting the perimeter but have been especially stingy when it comes to 3-pointers during this recent winning streak. Virginia has limited its last four foes to a collective 14 for 65 from beyond the arc (21.5 percent), and its pace and lack of turnovers can make it very difficult for opponents to find any offensive rhythm and heat up from outside.
The Cavaliers offense has done a better job scoring the basketball in ACC play and is extremely efficient. But while FSU doesn't compare to Bennett's lockdown defense, Leonard Hamilton's kids are no slouches on that end of the floor. The Seminoles are 45th in defensive efficiency (94.4) and hold opponents to 40.2 percent shooting on their home court.
If the first three minutes of the UNC-UVA game was evidence enough (no one scored until the 17:08 mark), total bettors will need to ride the sugar high from all that leftover Valentine's Day candy to make it through this one.
PREDICTION: Under 129.5 (-110)
Virginia vs Florida State betting card
- Virginia +1 (-110)
- Under 129.5 (-110)
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