It has been a roller-coaster season for the Florida Gators. They lost star Keyontae Johnson early in the season due to a scary heart condition and had some ugly losses but, in the end, should be a lock for the NCAA Tournament.
A strong run in the SEC tournament, however, would go a long way to help the No. 5 Gators’ seeding. That starts when they take on the No. 12 Vanderbilt Commodores as 8-point favorites in the Second Round.
Check out our best free Vanderbilt vs. Florida picks and predictions for NCAA hoops action on Thursday, March 11, with tipoff at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Vanderbilt vs Florida odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonFlorida opened as an 8-point favorite at FanDuel this morning and within a few minutes dipped to -7.5, where the number remains at noon ET. The Gators are getting 69 percent of bets and 74 percent of money on the point spread. The total opened at 145.5, hit 144.5 a couple of times and is now 145, with 59 percent of bets/76 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameVanderbilt Commodores vs Florida Gators betting preview
Injuries
Vanderbilt: Tyrin Lawrence G (Out).
Florida: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-0-1 in Florida’s last seven games and 4-2 in Vanderbilt’s last six overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Vanderbilt vs. Florida.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Florida comes into this matchup by closing its season on a two-game losing streak but still finished 9-7 in SEC play, good for the fifth seed in the conference tournament. The Gators got there thanks to a balanced offense and a defense that contests the perimeter well. As a result, they match up very well against Vanderbilt.
But the Commodores come into this game with confidence, winners of three of their last five, which includes a solid 79-68 performance against Texas A&M in their SEC tourney opener. Vandy has been an excellent bet for the last month behind leading scorer Scotty Pippen Jr., going 8-1-4 ATS in its last 13 games.
Unfortunately for the Commodores, though, the Gators are not the Aggies. Even without Johnson, the Gators ranked 37th in Kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, putting up 74.6 points per game and had four players finish the season averaging double digits.
That doesn’t bode well for a Vandy defense that ranks 137th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 287th in opponent field goal percentage. On top of that, Vandy’s best tactic on offense is shooting the 3-ball, which plays right into Florida’s strengths. The Gators rank 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 33rd in the nation in opponent 3-point percentage.
With the Gators taking both matchups against the Commodores fairly easily, we’re betting they make it a perfect three-for-three, covering the spread in the process.
PREDICTION: Florida -8 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Florida and Vanderbilt met twice this season with an average total of 144.5, so it’s no surprise to see this number on the board at XX. Both of those matchups went Over, seeing an average of 156 total points per game. But hold up before you race to the betting window to take the Over.
While the Commodores have a solid offense, they're inconsistent and can have a tough time scoring if the 3-point shot isn't falling. Plus, they're facing a Gators defense that's taking it to the next level right now, allowing 67.3 points per contest over the last seven games. But Florida's scoring has also been down over that stretch, putting up just 67 points per contest.
Mix in the fact that neither of these teams plays at a super-high pace and we like this one to slip Under the number.
PREDICTION: Under 145 (-110)
Vanderbilt vs Florida betting card
- Florida -8 (-110)
- Under 145 (-110)
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