It is crazy to think that we could have an NCAA Tournament without the Kentucky Wildcats, but barring a miracle run through the SEC Tournament, that’s exactly the reality we’re looking at.
Kentucky really struggled in SEC play this season, going just 8-9 in conference action, but they’ll be slight 2.5-point college basketball betting favorites for their second-round matchup against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Check out our best free Mississippi State vs. Kentucky picks and predictions for NCAA hoops action on Thursday, March 11, with tipoff at noon ET.
Mississippi State vs Kentucky odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonKentucky hit the FanDuel odds board as a 2-point favorite Wednesday afternoon, stretched to -4 a short time ago, and is at -3.5 an hour before this noon ET tipoff. Bettors are all over the Wildcats, to the tune of 82 percent of bets and 85 percent of money. The total moved from 131 to 132, with the Over grabbing 88 percent of bets/90 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Kentucky Wildcats betting preview
Injuries
Mississippi State: None.
Kentucky: Cam'Ron Fletcher F (Out), Terrance Clarke G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Kentucky.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
If Kentucky doesn’t win the SEC tournament, it would be just the third time since 1992 that the Wildcats wouldn’t be headed to the Big Dance. And to be frank, the way Kentucky has played this season it doesn’t deserve to go dancing.
There was a stretch this season where Kentucky went 1-7 SU in SEC play and due to the public nature of the Wildcats, ended up being one of the worst bets in the county, going 3-10-1 ATS over their final 14 games.
The simple reason for this is that UK just doesn’t play well as a unit. It struggled with passing and ball movement, which resulted in a lot of contested – and bad – shots. So, it’s not much of a surprise that Kentucky ranks 83rd in adjusted offensive efficiency (per KenPom) and a putrid 289th in field goal percentage.
The Wildcats will have their hands full with a Mississippi State team that ranks 46th in adjusted defensive efficiency. While Kentucky defeated Mississippi State 78-73 in overtime back on January 2, the Bulldogs are the squad that has shown the most improvement since then. Despite closing the season with a 78-71 loss at Auburn, Mississippi State had won three of its previous four games, going 4-0 ATS during that stretch.
As noted, the Bulldogs hang their hat on defense and they have really ticked it up a notch, allowing opponents to shoot just 35 percent from the field over the last five games. That suffocating defense will make life tough on a Kentucky team that gets stuck playing too much iso-ball. We’re betting the Bulldogs will be a good bet as dogs, and could even be the final dagger in this lost Kentucky season.
PREDICTION: Mississippi State +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Kentucky and Mississippi State are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the SEC, with the Wildcats putting up 70.3 points per game and the Bulldogs just behind them at 69.4.
While we have praised the Bulldogs’ defense, the Wildcats aren’t too shabby at that end of the floor themselves. Kentucky ranks 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 52nd in opponent field goal percentage.
On top of that, the Under is 7-2 in Mississippi State’s last nine games. Defense will be the story in this game and that has us leaning towards the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 131 (-110)
Mississippi State vs Kentucky betting card
- Mississippi State +2.5 (-110)
- Under 131 (-110)
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