The college basketball betting board has 30 games on the slate this Thursday and a battle between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Texas Longhorns might be the best of the bunch.
The Longhorns are the No. 15 ranked team in the AP Top-25, while Texas Tech checks in at No. 18, but it's the Red Raiders who opened as slim 2-point favorites for this clash at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City.
Here are our best Texas Tech vs. Texas picks and predictions for Big 12 Conference Tournament action on Thursday, March 11, with tipoff at 9:30 p.m. ET.
Texas Tech vs Texas odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe SuperBook hasn't budged off Texas Tech -1.5 since posting this line Wednesday evening, with the Red Raiders still a modest favorite at 8:30 p.m. ET. "Most money is on Texas to this point, but it's not enough for me to go to Texas Tech -1, as we want to need the favorite for a little more at this level," SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers said. The total opened at 136.5, spent most of the past 24 hours at 135 and is now 134.5. "We need the Over for a peanut as things stand now. Nothing to sweat," Beyers said.
Check out the full line movement for this gameTexas Tech Red Raiders vs Texas Longhorns betting preview
Injuries
Texas Tech: Jamarius Burton G (Out), Joel Ntambwe F (Out).
Texas: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 13-4 in the Longhorns' last 17 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Texas.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Red Raiders are coming off a 15-point loss to Baylor but since everybody is getting worked by the Bears, we won't hold that against them. Prior to that defeat, they had reeled off three straight wins including a 69-59 victory over Texas. After that loss in Lubbock, the Longhorns closed out their regular season with three consecutive wins, going 3-0 ATS in that span.
Both of these schools have been among the better teams in the conference – and the country – all season. The Longhorns posted a 17-7 record while ranking 26th in the country in adjusted efficiency margin according to KenPom.
The Red Raiders went 17-9 SU and rank 20th in adjusted efficiency margin. They also beat the Longhorns in both meetings this season, edging Shaka Smart's squad 79-77 when they faced off in Austin on January 13.
While it's difficult to find an edge between such evenly matched teams, I'm leaning towards Texas for two reasons: size and three-point shooting. While both schools are driven by the play of their guards, the Longhorns have better length thanks to forwards Jericho Sims, Kai Jones and Greg Brown. Texas Tech has 6-foot-7 power forward Marcus Santos-Silva as an inside presence, and that's about it.
The Red Raiders have also struggled to defend the three-ball, allowing Big 12 opponents to shoot 38.3 percent from beyond the arc. The Longhorns rank second in the Big 12 in three-pointers per game while connecting at a clip of 36.2 percent in conference play. Those two factors could be the deciders in what should be a close contest.
PREDICTION: Texas +2 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Although these teams combined for just 127 points when they met up two weeks ago, they also totaled 156 points when they met previously in January.
While the Red Raiders are best known for their slow tempo and strong defense under head coach Chris Beard, they are averaging a solid 73.3 points per game. Led by Georgetown transfer Mac McClung and his 16.1 ppg, Texas Tech has four players averaging double-digit points.
The Longhorns also have four starters scoring in double digits and as a team, they average 74.9 ppg. They've also gone a commanding 13-4 to the Over in their last 17 games overall. The opening total of 135.5 seems just a tad too low in this one, back the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 135.5 (-110)
Texas Tech vs Texas betting card
- Texas +2 (-110)
- Over 135.5 (-110)
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