Kansas State earned a 71-50 victory over TCU in the Big 12 Tournament on Wednesday, and now the team has a date with No. 2 Baylor. The two will meet at 2:30 p.m. ET at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Missouri on Thursday, March 11.
Will the Wildcats stun the world and hang in there against the Bears? Find out in our Kansas State vs. Baylor picks and predictions.
Kansas State vs Baylor odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBaylor opened a hefty 19.5-point favorite at FanDuel and within a few minutes this morning moved to -20, where the number remains at noon ET. Point-spread ticket count is running 2/1 and money 3/1 on the Bears. The total went from 137 to 137.5 to 136.5, even though the Over is getting pelted, at 89 percent of bets/90 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameKansas State Wildcats vs Baylor Bears betting preview
Injuries
Kansas State: Montavious Murphy F (Out).
Baylor: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-2 in Baylor’s last 10 games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas State vs. Baylor.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Kansas State is coming off a solid win over TCU on Wednesday, as the Wildcats won by 21 points and got a combined 40 out of Nijel Pack and Mike McGuirl. Those are Kansas State’s only two players who average double digits on the year, and the two of them will need to be similarly hot in order to hang with Baylor. You should know that it’s very unlikely that happens, though.
This season, Kansas State and Baylor have met twice, with the Bears winning those contests by a combined 79 points. (Yes, you read that correctly.) Baylor had a brief period of time in which the team struggled after a short COVID-related break, but the team did earn a 15-point win over a good Texas Tech group on March 7. That win followed up victories over West Virginia and Oklahoma State, so it’s probably safe to say that Baylor has its groove back.
The Wildcats are 236th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 105th in adjusted defensive efficiency (all efficiency stats according to KenPom.com). Baylor, meanwhile, is third in the country in offense and 33rd in defense. In more ways than imaginable, this is just a massive on-court mismatch. Look for all of Baylor’s guards — Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell, MaCio Teague, and Adam Flagler — to get plenty of chances to make plays in this one.
On top of everything else, Baylor is also 3-0 ATS in neutral site games this season.
PREDICTION: Baylor -20.0 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The last two meetings between these teams went Over the total, with the Bears reaching the 100-point mark in each of those contests.
Baylor should be able to put up a big number offensively in this game, and that would give this one another real chance of going Over. The Wildcats should also be able to put up a decent amount of points here, too. Baylor’s games tend to turn into shootouts rather often, and the Wildcats will be somewhat in rhythm coming into this one, as they just earned a win Wednesday.
PREDICTION: Over 136.5 (-110)
Kansas State vs Baylor betting card
- Baylor -20.0 (-110)
- Over 136.5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NCAA Kansas State vs. Baylor picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our NCAA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
