The No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers head to Columbus to take on the No. 23 Ohio State Buckeyes in a Big Ten battle on Thursday night.
The Boilermakers are coming off their first loss of the season and haven't covered in their last eight contests. The Buckeyes have won three in a row and are expected to take a close one tonight with college basketball odds opening with OSU as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Check out my best college basketball picks and predictions for Purdue vs. Ohio State below.
Purdue vs Ohio State best odds
Purdue vs Ohio State picks and predictions
Purdue was 13-0 to start the season before losing to the Scarlet Knights at home on Monday. While losing by a single point to a strong defensive team like Rutgers is nothing to be ashamed of, Purdue's continuing shooting woes are an issue.
Zach Edey is practically unstoppable inside but the rest of the team has looked lost on offense over the last month. Outside of Edey, the rest of Purdue went just 13-38 from the floor against Rutgers, shot a pathetic 25% vs. Davidson (15-60), and went 18-51 against Nebraska.
That's not going to cut it against an experienced and talented Buckeyes squad at home. Ohio State has multiple players that can get buckets and freshman sensation Brice Sensabaugh (20 ppg on 58.9% shooting in his last four contests) is improving with every game.
The Buckeyes have the second-most efficient offense in the country (according to both raw stats and KenPom) and have also been playing well on the defensive end of the floor.
They do an excellent job of defending without fouling and are ninth in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (27.4%). That's bad news for a Purdue team that has lived at the charity stripe and is just 29-for-121 (24%) from long distance over its last five games.
Purdue's perimeter players won't be to take advantage of the Buckeyes double-teaming Edey down low, and they won't be able to keep up with Ohio State's efficiency on the other end of the court.
My best bet: Ohio State -1.5 (-105 at Betway)
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Purdue vs Ohio State spread analysis
The Boilermakers are the No. 1 team in the nation but will likely fall out of that spot when the next AP Top 25 poll drops on Monday. Losing 65-64 to Rutgers at home hurts although they did manage to fight back from a 34-24 halftime deficit and had a lead until Cam Spencer knocked down a game-winning 3-pointer with 14 seconds left on the clock.
What's more concerning is that Purdue is just 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight games and was pushed into overtime against 8-7 Nebraska last month. The Boilermakers also looked awful vs. Davidson, needing a whopping 41 free throw attempts to score a modest 69 points.
Despite their recent struggles on offense, the Boilermakers are still fifth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency thanks to Edey, who averages 21.7 points and 13.4 rebounds per game while shooting 63.2% from the field. The 7-foot-4 center will be a massive mismatch for a Buckeyes squad that starts 6-foot-8 Zed Key at center.
The Buckeyes are fresh off a 73-57 win on the road against Northwestern and are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games. Ohio State has three defeats this season but all came against Quadrant 1 foes and it also has three wins against Quad 1 opponents.
All five OSU starters are averaging at least 9.9 points per game while senior Isaac Likekele is a defensive stopper off the bench. Sensabaugh replaced Likekele in the starting lineup last month and leads the team with 15.9 ppg while Justice Sueing and Key are just behind him with 13.5 ppg and 13.4 ppg respectively.
One area to watch for in this matchup will be Purdue's ability to get to the line since they take 23.6 free throw attempts per game and allow opponents just 10.7. The Boilermakers are 21st in the country in opponent fouls per defensive play (25.4%). However, Ohio State is 31st in fouls per defensive play (18.6%) with that number dropping to 14.1% in its last three games.
Purdue vs Ohio State Over/Under analysis
These teams are two of the most efficient offenses in the country but we're seeing a modest total of 141.5 due to the slow pace these teams play and their strong defense.
The Boilermakers are 315th in the country in adjusted tempo while the Buckeyes are 217th. They are also tied for 23rd in the country by holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 44.3%.
I mentioned how unstoppable Edey had been inside but the Boilermakers supporting cast has been far less impressive lately.
Their freshmen backcourt of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer has really slowed down after an impressive start to the season. Loyer is averaging just 9.8 ppg on 27% shooting in his last four games while Smith hasn't scored more than eight points in his last three contests.
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes haven't allowed more than 61 points in their last three games and are holding foes to 35.2% shooting over that span.
Purdue vs Ohio State betting trend to know
The Boilermakers are 6-18-3 ATS in their last 27 games overall while going 2-5-1 ATS in their previous eight contests on the road. Find more College basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Ohio State.
Purdue vs Ohio State game info
| Location: | Value City Arena, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Thursday, January 5, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
