The Wisconsin Badgers entered this college basketball season with high expectations but after a rocky year can consider themselves fortunate to earn a No. 7 seed for the NCAA tournament.
They'll be looking to enter March Madness with momentum and the best way to do that is by winning a few games in the Big Ten Conference tournament, starting with their matchup against the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Here are our best Penn State vs. Wisconsin picks and predictions for college basketball betting action on Thursday, March 11. With tipoff at 9 p.m. ET from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Penn State vs Wisconsin odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonWisconsin opened -5 at DraftKings and rose to -5.5 midmorning today, and the line remains -5.5 at 6 p.m. ET. The Badgers are landing 71 percent of bets and 84 percent of money on the spread. The total opened at 134.5, bottomed out at 133 midmorning, and it’s now back at the 134.5 opener. The Under is getting 56 percent of tickets, while the Over is seeing 52 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Wisconsin Badgers betting preview
Injuries
Penn State: None.
Wisconsin: Ben Carlson F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Under is 8-3 in Nittany Lions' last 11 overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Penn State vs. Wisconsin.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Penn State struggled through a rough regular season, going 7-12 SU in conference play before pulling away to beat Nebraska last night. Although the Nittany Lions have won four of their last five games overall, two wins against the Cornhuskers and victories against Minnesota and Maryland don't exactly quicken the pulse.
As late as January 18, the Badgers were ranked at No. 10 in the AP Top 25 poll. But then it all fell apart with Wisconsin failing to win consecutive games since that date and going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS to close out the regular season.
Generally speaking, the Badgers did a decent job of beating (and covering the spread against) inferior teams but simply couldn't get it done against quality opponents. One of the few exceptions to that was their January 30 encounter with Penn State, which they lost 81-71. That said, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that game was an outlier.
The Badgers actually allow the fewest points in the conference by holding foes to 64 points per game, and they limited the Nittany Lions to just 56 points three days later. The Nittany Lions also generally struggle on the offensive end of the floor, shooting just 40.7 percent on the season, so don't expect another 81-point explosion from them Thursday night.
The Badgers haven't exactly been efficient on offense themselves, but they should be able to get the job done against a Penn State squad that ranks outside the Top-300 by allowing foes to shoot a sizzling 54.3 percent from inside the arc. Look for this senior-laden Wisconsin team to take advantage of a tired and defensively inept opponent, and back the Badgers on the spread.
PREDICTION: Wisconsin -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
We already mentioned that the Nittany Lions shoot just 40.7 percent from the field, but that number drops to an even uglier 39.8 percent against conference foes.
The Badgers have also been brutal at putting the ball in the hoop against Big Ten opponents, shooting just 40.5 percent from the field and averaging 66.8 ppg.
While we're expecting the Badgers to have some success against Penn State's porous D, a shootout seems unlikely. Especially when you consider that Wisconsin plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, ranking 324th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom.
Expect this contest to play out in a similar fashion to Wisconsin's 72-56 win over Penn State last month. Back the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 134.5 (-110)
Penn State vs Wisconsin betting card
- Wisconsin -5.5 (-110)
- Under 134.5 (-110)
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