The second round of the Big Ten tournament tips off on Thursday and the first game on the college basketball betting board is a showdown between the Michigan State Spartans and Maryland Terrapins.
The Spartans have slogged through a rough season, although Tom Izzo's squad always seems to turn it up a notch in March. But they'll need to make some adjustments if they want to get by a Terrapins squad that crushed them last week.
Here are our best free Michigan State vs. Maryland picks and predictions for Thursday, March 11, with tipoff at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Michigan State vs Maryland odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonMaryland opened -1.5 at FanDuel on Wednesday afternoon, dipped to -1 late Wednesday night, then the line briefly jumped the fence to Michigan State -1 this morning. As of 10:45 a.m. ET, 45 minutes before tipoff, the Terrapins are back to -1.5, but the Spartans are taking 75 percent of spread tickets and 62 percent of spread money. The total opened at 131 and is down to 129, even though ticket count and money are running 3/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMichigan State Spartans vs Maryland Terrapins betting preview
Injuries
Michigan State: Foster Loyer G (Out)
Maryland: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Maryland is 10-2 to the Under in its last 12 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan State vs. Maryland.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Maryland enters the tournament coming off back-to-back losses to Big Ten bottom-feeders Penn State and Northwestern. That said, the Terrapins had reeled off five straight wins prior to those defeats, including a 73-55 victory over Michigan State.
The Spartans ended their regular season on a high note, defeating the No. 2-ranked Michigan Wolverines 70-64. That victory allowed Michigan State to bounce back from a 69-50 defeat to the Wolverines in Ann Arbor just three days earlier.
That two-game set against Michigan emphasized a huge problem with the Spartans all season: Their inability to play on the road. Michigan State is 12-3 SU with an average scoring margin of plus-5.9 points per game at home, but went just 3-8 SU with a scoring margin of minus-10.8 ppg in away contests.
While this game won't be in hostile territory, since it will take place on a neutral site at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, it also won't be in its backyard in Lansing. The Terps were much more competitive in away contests, going 4-6 SU and picking up huge wins on the road against Illinois and Wisconsin.
With how unreliable the Spartans have been away from the Breslin Center, we simply can't trust them in Indy—especially against a Terrapins squad that is superior in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Back Maryland.
PREDICTION: Maryland -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
These are the two lowest-scoring teams in the Big Ten, with Michigan State ranking second-last with 69.5 points per game and Maryland dead last with 68.9 ppg.
The Terps are actually fairly efficient on offense, shooting 45.8 percent from the field, but they play at a glacial pace, ranking 324th in the country in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom. Maryland has also been very stout on the defensive end of the floor, holding opponents to 64.7 ppg on 40.4 percent shooting, both numbers good for second best in the conference.
When you consider that Michigan State ranks 253rd in the country with a field goal percentage of 42.5 – and that figure plummets to a pathetic 38.3 percent away from home – the Under is looking like the play.
The betting trends also support that wager, with Maryland going 10-2 to the Under in their last 12 games and MSU cashing the Under in five straight contests.
PREDICTION: Under 131 (-110)
Michigan State vs Maryland betting card
- Maryland -1.5 (-110)
- Under 131 (-110)
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