Penn State vs Michigan State Odds, Picks and Predictions: All Heart From the Nittany Lions

The Michigan State Spartans have opened their Big Ten schedule with a pair of losses brought about by a lack of defensive intensity, preventing them from excelling at the famed “Defend, Rebound and Run” philosophy of Spartans Hall of Fame head coach Tom Izzo.

Penn State is 1-1 in conference play but just 2-21 over their last 23 meetings with the Spartans at Breslin Center, and the college basketball odds have tabbed Michigan State as heavy home favorites.

Join me as I break down tonight's Penn State vs. Michigan State contest and give you my best college basketball picks for Wednesday, January 3.

Penn State vs Michigan State best odds

Penn State vs Michigan State picks and predictions

For 29 seasons, Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo has been stalking the Breslin Center sidelines. He’s seen it all: good starts, bad starts, and everything in between.

Throughout his Hall of Fame career, Izzo has kept a simple mantra called “Defend, Rebound and Run.” Win, lose, or draw, Izzo expects his teams to do those three things, and if they don’t, then they don’t see the floor until they do.

MSU has defended well at times this season. They are in the top 50 nationally in points allowed, opponents' field goal percentage, and blocked shots. They force turnovers and turn those miscues into an average of 16 points per game. 

The Spartans allow 64.5 points per game overall and 61.1 points at home, but they’ve allowed 72 points per game through their first two conference games this season. Since the Nebraska loss, the Spartans have surrendered 64 or fewer in three of their last four overall matchups but will face a test from a stronger than their recent competition Penn State program averaging 77.5 points per game.

Michigan State laying -13.5 is too many for this matchup.

Penn State hasn’t played a rigid non-conference schedule, and they did go 0-4 in non-conference play against top 100 KenPom-ranked programs. The Nittany Lions are scoring 82 points per game in conference action and, according to ShotQuality, play tremendous three-point shooting defense while forcing plenty of turnovers they’ve turned into 17.9 points per game.

The Nittany Lions have been solid thus far in conference action. They knocked off Ohio State at home and suffered a six-point overtime loss at Maryland they probably should’ve won. More importantly, Penn State covered the spread in both conference matchups because they defend the three-point arc better than most do, and I expect them to do the same on Thursday against a streaky, three-point shooting MSU side.

Finally, while the Spartans have defended well recently, they will have difficulty snatching caroms against the longer and more experienced Nittany Lions, making their strategy's “rebound and run” aspect difficult and their half-court offense isn’t where Izzo would like it to be. Penn State is a decent shooting team that makes their free throws a bit better than the Spartans', and forces an incredible number of turnovers which will help them score with MSU and cover the +13.5 spread.

My best bet: Penn State +13.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Penn State vs Michigan State same-game parlay

Penn State +13.5

Under 144

+264 at DraftKings

The Nittany Lions lead the Big 10 with 16.5 forced turnovers per game. MSU sometimes plays too fast and, as a result, averages 10.9 turnovers per game. That should help Penn State cover the spread for the fourth time in their last five at Breslin.

That’s one of the many reasons I like Penn State to cover, but it’s also why I like this game to end Under the 144-point total. Penn State will battle on the glass, but they likely won’t enjoy the bulk of their season average of 17.9 points per game from turnovers. MSU usually scores 16 points from turnovers, but the Nittany Lions allow just 10.5 points from their miscues, and MSU won’t score close to 16.

Finally, the past few meetings have been closely contested affairs. The Under is 3-2 over their last five and 2-0 in their last two meetings. I expect a close, low-scoring affair on Thursday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Penn State vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis

Laying -13.5 for a Big Ten matchup seems like too many for a team that is 0-2 in the Big Ten and 0-2-0 ATS in those games. FanDuel opened with the best number for Penn State at +14.5, but the juice seems expensive (-114. Caesars opened at Penn State at +13, and I suspect that number could dip to as low as +11.5 by tip-off time. 

MSU backers can find -13 (-110) at Caesars, but if they wait long enough, they may see numbers as low as -10.5. Penn State boasts a conference-best 5.3 turnover margin, and it's hard to believe a team as good as they are at forcing turnovers is +13.5-point road dawgs.

If the spread moves as much as I believe it will, then we’re also looking at a maybe higher total than the 144 points DraftKings and Caesars opened at. FanDuel opened Under 144.5 (-115), and while I like the Under in this one, I don’t love it, and I really don’t like the -115 attached to it. If you love the Under, I’d wait and see what happens with the spread. The total won’t likely decrease, and you won’t get stuck betting a bad early number.

Over bettors will want to hit 144 at DraftKings and Caesars as that is the lowest number by far. It probably won’t remain that low, so fire away if the Over is to your liking. 

Penn State vs Michigan State betting trend to know

The Nittany Lions are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Penn State vs. Michigan State.

Penn State vs Michigan State game info

Penn State vs Michigan State key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic