The Bronx meets Queens as the New York Yankees take on the New York Mets in a must-watch Subway Series clash.
But this isn’t just about city bragging rights — it’s also a marquee matchup between two of baseball’s biggest names: Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. After going separate ways last season, the sluggers finally go head-to-head, adding even more heat to this already electric rivalry.
As we dig deeper in the first game of the series, I’ve got you covered with my full Yankees vs. Mets predictions and top MLB picks for Friday, May 16.
My Mets vs Yankees best bet: Yankees moneyline (-138 at FanDuel)
The New York Yankees World Series appearance last year marked a high point of recent success, as they outshined their crosstown rivals.
Yet, success is relative, at least regarding how things are viewed in the Bronx. Anything less than a World Series isn't enough. Despite their pennant, the pinstripes fell short of the ultimate prize—a failure that stings deeply amongst those in the northern boroughs.
Meanwhile, the New York Mets hit the Yanks with a significant blow by signing star slugger Juan Soto away from their rivals. It was a bold move that shifted the city's baseball narrative. Even more striking, the Mets have asserted dominance in recent head-to-head matchups with four straight wins. These are all the key tentacles of the subplots making up this weekend's series.
Why have the Mets had so much recent success? Well, mostly offense and being able to display a sizable advantage on the mound, even a few times against the Yankees' ace pitchers. Tonight, the narrative flips. It's the Yankees with a pitching advantage in this opener, and that's why I'm taking them to grab the win as my best bet.
We've talked about this season a few times, and it's applicable again. The Bronx boys will see a matchup they like: a pitcher with hard-hit issues who leans heavily on the fastball. He's been punished for this lately against two strong fastball-hitting teams, the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs, allowing four earned runs in back-to-back starts against the two.
The struggles against the Cubs are particularly notable given the similarities the Yankees have with them from a batted ball perspective. The two teams have a nearly identical line drive rate, pull rate, and opposite field rate. In addition, both have an above-average flyball rate and a below-average groundball rate. That said, the Yankees show more overall power, which makes you think they can key on Tyler Megill's trouble spot of a hard-hit rate in the bottom 25th percentile of baseball.
Opposing Megill is Carlos Rodon, whom I've likely been lower on than most, and lately, he's made those opinions look silly.
Putting aside his last start against the Athletics, which had a decent degree of unlucky variance, Rodon has posted four consecutive starts, allowing two earned runs combined in all of them. Those included a collection of teams with decent power, like the San Diego Padres and Cleveland Guardians. Even with that flurry of success, he's still due for more positive regression, carrying an expected ERA that's below three. It gives me confidence that he will have a solid start this evening.
I made the Yankees a -157 favorite here and would play this down to -150.
Mets vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees moneyline
Ben Rice RBI
Ben Rice is projected to bat third today, putting him in a great spot to drive in a run.
I've already mentioned the Yankees' fastball hitting prowess, which applies to both Rice and the two batters in front of him. That plays a significant part here.
In addition, Rice will have a platoon edge against McGill and likely any reliever that comes into the game for the Mets, as they currently only have one left-handed arm available.
Mets vs Yankees odds
Mets vs Yankees live odds
Mets vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: New York (NL) +116 | New York (AL) -134
- Run line: New York (NL) +1.5 (-169) | New York (AL) -1.5 (+143)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Mets vs Yankees trend
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+8.20 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Yankees.
How to watch Mets vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Friday, 5-16-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | PIX11, YES |
| Mets starting pitcher | Tylor Megill (3-3, 3.10 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (4-3, 3.29 ERA) |
Mets vs Yankees latest injuries
Mets vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
