Astros vs Rangers Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Tonight's MLB Game

Fresh off a 1-0 win, the Rangers look to stay hot in another low-scoring showdown vs. the Astros with Nathan Eovaldi on the mound — see why our MLB picks are backing Texas again tonight.

JD Yonke - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
JD Yonke • Betting Analyst
May 16, 2025 • 17:23 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Texas Rangers left fielder Wyatt Langford (36) flips his bat after getting a walk.
Photo By - Imagn Images. Texas Rangers left fielder Wyatt Langford (36) flips his bat after getting a walk.

The red-hot Rangers (24-21) ride a six-game heater into Friday’s showdown with the Astros (22-21).

With Eovaldi and McCullers set to square off, our Astros vs. Rangers predictions and MLB picks are locking in on the Under.

Astros vs Rangers prediction

My Astros vs Rangers best bet: Under 8 (-105 at BetMGM)

Nathan Eovaldi continues to churn out quality innings at the ripe age of 35. 

The veteran has held an ERA below 4.00 for the last five years and counting. He’s off to a superb start with a 1.78 ERA, and while his 3.22 xERA indicates some regression, his 2.13 FIP is undeniable. 

The underlying numbers are strong. He holds a minuscule walk rate (2.4%) and generates plenty of strikeouts (28.6%) thanks to a career-high 14% swinging strike rate. 

The Texas Rangers have played to the Under (14-30-1 O/U), especially at Globe Life Field (5-19 O/U). They’re 1-7-1 O/U with Eovaldi on the bump, and all three of his starts at home went Under the total. 

Lance McCullers Jr. gets the nod for the Houston Astros. He’ll look to rebound after a disastrous outing against Cincinnati in which he was lifted after allowing seven earned runs and recording just a single out. 

However, he stands a good chance of bouncing back. 

Only once in seven years has McCullers finished with an ERA above 4.00, so one terrible start doesn’t mean he’s immediately become an awful pitcher. 

Manager Joe Espada will likely have the veteran on a short leash if he does struggle, and the good news is that Houston has a fantastic bullpen. 

The Astros lead the majors in FIP (2.95) and rank second in ERA (2.69) in relief. 

Both arm barns are well-rested after Thursday’s pitcher’s duel between Jacob deGrom and Hunter Brown, in which both starters lasted eight innings in a 1-0 game. 

Sign me up for another Rangers Under at home. 

Astros vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 8

Rangers moneyline

Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 total bases

The Rangers are 4-1 in Eovaldi’s last five starts. They have a 16-8 record at home compared to 7-12 on the road for the Astros. 

McCullers has reverse splits in his career. I’m targeting youngster Wyatt Langford to deal some damage against him, as the youngster has been hot lately with multiple total bases in three of his last five games. 

Langford ranks in the 75th percentile or above in xwOBA, xSLG, and bat speed. He has more power against righties (.247 ISO) than lefties (.194 ISO) and hits for more average as well (.269 BA compared to .222).  

Astros vs Rangers odds

Astros vs Rangers live odds

Astros vs Rangers opening odds

  • Moneyline: Houston +160 | Texas -179
  • Run line: Houston +1.5 | Texas -1.5
  • Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Astros vs Rangers trend

The Rangers have hit the Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.55 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rangers.

How to watch Astros vs Rangers and game info

Location Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
Date Friday, 5-16-2025
First pitch 8:05 p.m. ET
TV Apple TV+
Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr.
(0-1, 15.75 ERA)
Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi
(4-2, 1.78 ERA)

Astros vs Rangers latest injuries

Astros vs Rangers weather

Not intended for use in MA.
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JD Yonke
Betting Analyst

JD is a diehard college football fan with five years of experience writing betting and fantasy content for publications such as SportsGrid, Fantasy Points, Fantrax, and Devy Watch. An avid reader, he uses his inclination to look at things with an exhausting and in-depth, analytic viewpoint combined with a love for statistics and metrics to form a well-rounded handicapping approach.

e's an integral member of the niche (but growing!) college fantasy football community, twice traveling to Canton, OH for the Fantasy Football Expo as a member of the CFF King's Classic drafting squad. His specialization in college football DFS and prop betting taught him that there are exploitable markets to be found and that narrowing your focus is integral to being a profitable bettor.

A lifelong Californian who grew up playing baseball, basketball, football, and lacrosse, he's glad to share a passionate love for sports with this wonderful community.

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