Murray State vs Mississippi State Odds, Picks and Predictions: The Size of the Fight in the Bulldog

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and Murray State Racers meet up as both are nearing the end of their non-conference schedule. 

The Racers are reeling as they enter this game, losing two straight and three of four. They're coming off a loss against Austin Peay in which they failed to eclipse the 50-point mark. The Bulldogs haven't been much better, losing two of their last three games, although they just bounced back with a win over Tulane in a 30-point blowout. Those losses, however, are troubling. Nevertheless, Mississippi State is still a double-digit favorite in college basketball odds.

What's the best bet in this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, December 13. 

Murray State vs Mississippi State best odds

Murray State vs Mississippi State picks and predictions

Many interesting factors surround this matchup with two teams that have been relatively poor over the last month. One of those things is a stylistic change from Murray State head coach Steve Prohm. 

"We need to be running and putting pressure on people," Prohm said following the Austin Peay loss. "The game was just too slow for us."

This is Prohm's first season back at the helm of a college program but when he last coached at Iowa State a few years ago, his teams were routinely in the Top 100 in tempo. However you slice it, it's a departure from what Murray State has been since the beginning of this season. The Racers come into this matchup in the 200s in overall tempo, depending on your preferred analytical think tank site. That's too slow for Prohm, and it makes sense. Murray State has been more effective in the games where they have been able to speed things up. 

The Racers will specifically want to speed things up in a game that features one of the nation's best effective field shooting defenses. While this may help Murray get the scoring, it could hurt on the other end.

Aside from an increased pace that may not be effectively accounted for in this handicap, there are some notable offensive advantages for the Bulldogs. One of those is what happens on the backboard. A bugaboo for Murray State is it enters this game middling, at best, in rebounding percentage, which is a strength for Mississippi State. While the Bulldogs already have a physical advantage, the notable rebounding "talent" edge should allow for a few more offensive possessions and scores.

Elsewhere, Murray State will not be able to contain Josh Hubbard's driving ability. The freshman is a legitimate scoring talent and has graded out excellently in pick-and-roll situations to start the year. Containing dribble drives and slowing down the blow-byes have been a real issue for this Murray State squad. It's the worst in the conference in pick-and-roll defense and the second worst in defending cutting actions. If Murray State can stop the initial screen, it will be dealing with offensive breakdowns all night. It seems like that's going to be the issue here.

Take the Bulldogs to go over their team total tonight. We saw what the offense can do when it's clicking, and the matchup was right when they dropped over 100 points on Tulane. Of course, we're not expecting that again, but it does open the door to the Mississippi State mindset. It can't afford any more non-conference letdowns, and I'd expect a very focused group this evening against an inferior team.

Finally, the Bulldogs come into this matchup with turnovers on almost 20% of their possessions and, luckily for them, Murray State has one of the lowest turnover rates in the sport.

My best bet: Mississippi State team total Over 76.5 (-125 at FanDuel)

Murray State vs Mississippi State same-game parlay

Mississippi State team total Over 76.5

Race to 20 points — Mississippi State

+100 at bet365

The market was quite bare for our same-game parlay options at the time of writing. 

I was interested in a Josh Hubbard prop, but there were none. We are left with this: A doubling down of our original handicap. Mississippi State should be urgent after some disappointments earlier in the year. Considering that, I'd expect the Bulldogs to jump out of the gate quickly and get to 20 points first.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Murray State vs Mississippi State spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread seems spot-on to me.

I projected it slightly below Mississippi State -17, which is where it has ballooned to by Wednesday afternoon. With that in mind, there's a slight lean to Murray State, but with the multiple advantages it'll need to overcome, there's not much conviction. These two have met just once before back in 2007. It holds no meaning for his one, but the Bulldogs did come away with the 16-point win then.

There's a natural lean to the full game Over since we are playing the team in that direction, but I'll pass. I'd instead rely on something other than Murray State to do much of anything against a defense that has been so sound. We are certainly bucking trends with an Over play, at least as it relates to Mississippi State. Its games have gone Under at 3-7 clip over itslast 10 games, including four of the previous five.

Murray State vs Mississippi State betting trend to know

Mississippi State has hit the Moneyline in 12 of its last 17 games at home (+5.70 Units / 6% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Murray State vs. Mississippi State.

Murray State vs Mississippi State game info

Murray State vs Mississippi State key injuries

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