The No. 17 Alabama Crimson Tide aim for their sixth straight win as they host the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight.
With Tide star Labaron Philon listed as questionable, the spread is tough to handicap, so my Mississippi State vs. Alabama predictions focus on the Bulldogs’ team total.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this SEC showdown on Wednesday, February 25.
Mississippi State vs Alabama prediction
Mississippi State vs Alabama best bet: Mississippi State team total Over 80.5 (-115)
Although the Alabama Crimson Tide's elite offense won't be quite as dominant without Labaron Philon, their poor defensive effort will be on display regardless.
The Tide play at the second-fastest adjusted tempo in the country, and that, combined with their lax defense, has resulted in them ranking 353rd in points allowed per game (83.9).
Meanwhile, the Mississippi State Bulldogs have ramped up their pace over the last month, and their offense is surging. They've scored more than 88 points in three straight games while boasting a 60.4 eFG% over that span.
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Mississippi State vs Alabama same-game parlay
Since we’re betting the Over on the Bulldogs team total, it also makes sense to back point guard Josh Hubbard.
The sophomore ranks ninth in the country with 22.0 points per game and could be the only MSU player averaging double digits tonight, with Jayden Epps listed as questionable.
Hubbard has scored more than 30 points in three of his last four games while recording 3+ assists in three of his previous five contests.
Mississippi State vs Alabama SGP
- Mississippi State team total Over 80.5
- Josh Hubbard Over 26.5 points
- Josh Hubbard Over 3.5 assists
Our beyond the arc SGP: Point Guard Duel
Aden Holloway is second on Alabama Crimson Tide men's basketball in points (16.9) and assists (3.9) per game, trailing Jahvon Quinerly Philon in both categories.
If Philon doesn’t play, Holloway’s usage rate is expected to soar in a game projected to feature a frenetic pace and plenty of scoring.
Mississippi State vs Alabama SGP
- Josh Hubbard Over 26.5 points
- Josh Hubbard Over 3.5 assists
- Aden Holloway Over 18.5 points
- Aden Holloway Over 4.5 assists
Mississippi State vs Alabama odds
- Spread: Mississippi State +14.5 (-110) | Alabama -14.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Mississippi State +850 | Alabama -1400
- Over/Under: Over 175 (-110) | Under 175 (-110)
Mississippi State vs Alabama betting trend to know
The Over is 10-2 in the Bulldogs' last 12 games on the road (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Alabama.
How to watch Mississippi State vs Alabama
| Location | Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date | Wednesday, February 25, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN U |
Mississippi State vs Alabama key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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