Minnesota vs Michigan State Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Waste Not, Want Not When it Comes to Scoring

The Minnesota Golden Gophers were putting together a historic season, at least in gambling terms, reaching 23-3 against the spread before a 1-4 swoon the last three weeks. That hardly drew notice on the national radar, mostly because the Gophers finished the season 18-13 outright and No. 10 in the Big Ten.

A surge through the Big Ten Tournament bracket this week could give Minnesota some March Madness odds hopes, and playing in Minneapolis conceivably helps that cause. But the Michigan State Spartans await. They are headed to the NCAA Tournament, led by senior Tyson Walker.

Even though Michigan State itself slumped in the last few weeks, going 1-4 both outright and against the spread, it should have enough to get by Minnesota today, particularly if its offense returns.

Given the Gophers’ lousy defense, it should be safe to assume the Spartans’ offense will return in our free college basketball picks and predictions as we preview Minnesota vs Michigan State on Thursday, March 14, with tip set for noon ET. Don't forget to check the conference tournament odds for a full breakdown of the Power 6 pursuits.

Minnesota vs Michigan State best odds

Minnesota vs Michigan State picks and predictions

The Minnesota Golden Gophers’ ATS run was a bit of a fluke. Their third, fourth, and fifth games all ended within one point of the spread, each falling in Minnesota’s favor. Two games in Big Ten play fell the Gophers’ way by the hook alone.

Sweeping those five in ATS terms was as unlikely as losing them all. Split them however you like, and that 23-3 start could have become 20-6, still quite impressive but no longer presumably record-setting.

That said, Minnesota’s ATS run was also a sign that oddsmakers could not catch up to Ben Johnson’s team in his third year. Johnson deserved that doubt, going just 6-33 in conference play in his first two seasons. But as that doubt dissipated, the Gophers beat the spread by less and less.

Split the Big Ten season into four segments of five games each: 

Minnesota opened 4-1 ATS, covering those four games by an average of 6.25 points. Then, it again went 4-1 ATS, covering those four by 4.9 points. A 5-0 ATS swell filled the first half of February, covering those five by 5.7 points in some part thanks to a bevy of last-minute free throws against Rutgers, turning a half-point cover into a 5.5-point cover. Without those fouls from the Knights, the Gophers’ spread-beating average in that stretch would have been 4.7 points. And finally, Minnesota went 1-4 ATS to close the season, covering that one game by four points.

What changed to create that downward trendline?

Two things. The obvious, bookmakers were always going to catch up to the Gophers. With more data, their numbers became more exacting. Let that explain how those margins continued to shrink compared to the spreads.

Secondly, Minnesota’s defense collapsed, even as its offense improved. Since Feb. 1, the Gophers’ defense ranks No. 166 in the country, per Bart Torvik. Before Feb. 1, it ranked No. 97. That fall outpaced the offense’s improvement to No. 32 after Feb. 1 from No. 91 up until Feb. 1.

And those defensive failures present today’s value.

The Michigan State Spartans' change in the final months of the season was their offense dropping more than 100 spots in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency numbers. In this particular matchup, though, the Spartans offense should find its groove again.

Minnesota ranked No. 12 in the Big Ten in 3-point percentage allowed while Michigan State ranked third in 3-point percentage, making 37.7% of its attempts from deep in conference play.

The Gophers are exposed via ball movement, with 59.7% of their opponents' made field goals coming via assists, No. 13 defensively in the Big Ten. The Spartans move the ball, ranking No. 6 in the conference in that offensive regard.

Combining Minnesota’s improved offense with a struggling offense perfectly designed to find its stride against the Gophers’ wretched defense should create a relative shootout in a rather empty Target Center.

My best bet: Over 135 (-112 at DraftKings)

Minnesota vs Michigan State same-game parlay

Over 135

Jaden Akins Over 2.5 made threes

A.J. Hoggard Over 4.5 assists

+410 at DraftKings

Part of why the Spartans offense fell off over the last month-plus was junior Jaden Akins’s shooting somewhat abandoning him. Since Feb. 1, he has shot just 17 of 54 from beyond the arc, 31.5%.

The better barometer of Akins’s ability, though, is his career. That’s just logic. In the two-plus seasons before this past Feb. 1, Akins had shot 40.7% on 271 attempts.

He can shoot, and he should get some open looks against the Gophers. Those looks likely will be set up by Michigan State’s leading assists man, A.J. Hoggard.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Minnesota vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis

Minnesota opened as a 7.5-point underdog on Wednesday afternoon, a number creeping to +6.5 by the end of the day. That move makes sense given the Gophers went 24-7 ATS this season, but do remember, bookmakers caught up to Minnesota.

Yes, this game will be played just across the Mississippi River from Dinkytown, but it is also being played at 11 a.m. local time on a weekday. Some Gophers fans will undoubtedly be in attendance, but there should be little home-court advantage to enjoy.

The total opened at 135, with some books choosing 135.5. Conservative systems suggest this total should reach 138, further emboldening the above Over play.

Minnesota vs Michigan State betting trend to know

Tom Izzo is 5-1 straight-up on Thursday in the Big Ten Tournament. Find more college basketball betting trends for Minnesota vs. Michigan State.

Minnesota vs Michigan State game info

Minnesota vs Michigan State key injuries

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