Upsets are how March Madness got its name. But for sports bettors, we don’t need a No. 15 seed to knock off a No. 2. We just need these March Madness underdogs to cover the spread.
This year, the tournament is top-heavy with 17 double-digit favorites on the odds board in the opening round. There’s plenty of points padding the underdogs, but finding a pup with pop could be tough.
Here are my favorite three underdog March Madness picks for the Round of 64.
Saint Louis (+2.5)
VCU
TCUNo. 9 Saint Louis Bilikens vs No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs
Midwest Region, Thursday @ 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS
This one sizes up as a shootout, boasting the tallest total (170 O/U) for the entire Round of 64. In fact, there have been just five NCAA tournament games with a total north of 170 points since 1998.
The Georgia Bulldogs ran their way into the Big Dance, pushing insane pace and piling up the points. That’s just fine with the Saint Louis Billikens, who put the pedal to the metal as well.
Saint Louis has a few edges over UGA, starting with the fact that it actually plays defense. The Billikens also run deep, and are able to keep fresh capable scorers on the floor. Most importantly, SLU can light it up from long range.
Georgia’s 3-point shooting runs hot and cold while Saint Louis shoots better than 40% from beyond the arc and averages over 10 triples an outing.
Game models have this pairing as one of the closest contests of the Round of 64, with forecasts between one and two points for UGA.
No. 11 VCU Rams vs No. 6 North Carolina Tar Heels
South Region, Thursday @ 6:50 p.m. ET, TNT
The North Carolina Tar Heels are in trouble.
On top of losing star guard Caleb Wilson for the season, UNC got help from a home-friendly schedule in the back half of ACC play to pad its resume. They played six of their last 10 at home, and lost all four away games.
The Tar Heels aren’t a great 3-point shooting team, and they leave far too many points at the foul line. I question UNC’s motivations with a talent-rich roster possibly weighing a transfer (and all that NIL money) if coach Hubert Davis gets the ax.
The VCU Rams have a completely different mentality in the Round of 64. The Rams have been fighting for their lives for the past two months after being a bubble team until the moment the horn sounded on their A-10 Championship win.
Virginia Commonwealth attacks on every level: drawing fouls, crashing the glass, and playing tight defense. The Rams won’t be intimidated by UNC’s pedigree either, having played a tough non-conference slate.
No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs vs No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes
East Region, Thursday @ 12:15 p.m. ET, CBS
I’m happy to see Ohio State Buckeyes stalwart Bruce Thornton finally get his time in the tournament, but it could be short-lived.
The Buckeyes have a tough draw in the TCU Horned Frogs. Texas Christian enters the NCAA playing its best basketball of the season, with its only loss in the past month to Kansas in the Big 12 tournament (6-1 ATS).
The Horned Frogs can poke a soft spot for OSU, which coughs the ball up too much. TCU is terrific at flipping those mistakes into buckets, forcing almost 14 turnovers for 16 POTOV per game.
The Buckeyes are the better offensive team but see a significant dip away from Columbus, scoring 12 points less in foreign venues. Ohio State also has trouble cleaning the glass and the Frogs are opportunistic, snatching misses for second-chance putbacks.
Perhaps the biggest nod to TCU is its resume, which features wins over Florida, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Iowa State, and a close loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes got fat beating up on the Big Ten’s so-so teams and are 3-10 SU in Quad 1 contests.
