UNC Asheville vs UCLA Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Bruins Handle First-Round Business

Mick Cronin and the No. 2 seed UCLA Bruins (29-5) begin their quest for another run in our March Madness picks with a first-round matchup Thursday night in Sacramento against the No. 15 seed UNC Asheville Bulldogs (27-7). 

The Bruins have found NCAA Tournament success in the past, going from the First Four to Final Four as a No. 11 seed in the 2021-21 tournament. 

This time, roles are somewhat reversed as Cronin’s side enters as a sizable March Madness odds favorite and one of the best teams in the country after dominating the Pac-12. Questions about health also abound with injuries to two of their starting five players.

How will the Bruins answer these questions in the big dance? Check out our college basketball picks for UNC Asheville vs. UCLA to find out. 

UNC Asheville vs UCLA best odds

UNC Asheville vs UCLA picks and predictions

The No. 2 seed UCLA Bruins arrive in Sacramento with dreams of cutting down the nets in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

The Bruins have been among the best teams in the country all season, throttling Pac-12 opponents with an elite defense (60.3 ppg allowed) and relying on two very experienced seniors (Jaime Jaquez) to carry the load offensively. They rode this formula and comfortably won the regular season title, ranking second nationally in KenPom while sporting the nation’s best defensive efficiency. 

Their first-round opponent is No. 15-seeded UNC Asheville. Mike Morrell took over coaching duties five years ago when he led the Bulldogs to just a 4-27 record in the 2018-19 season. They’ve been on an upward trajectory every season since, incrementally improving and reaching its first winning season under his guise a year ago. His team had a breakthrough in 2022-23, winning 10 more games than it did a season ago. 

Asheville checks in at 146th overall in KenPom — 195th in offensive efficiency and 115th in defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs knock down threes at an elite rate (39%) but rarely let it fly, ranking 186th in the percentage of shots taken from 3-point range (37.4%). 

One area of Asheville’s resume that stands out is that it ranks first overall in KenPom’s luck metric. Out of 363 basketball teams playing Division I, Asheville has been the single luckiest team. The Bulldogs have limited opponents to just 29.7% from behind the arc (seventh nationally) yet rank 74th in 3-point field goal percentage allowed against the average opponent (Haslametrics), so some regression is due mainly on that front. 

The two best teams that Asheville played this season are Dayton and Arkansas. The Bulldogs were blown out by both, losing by 23 points to the Flyers and 34 points to the Razorbacks. 

UCLA enters the big dance with huge injury concerns. Pac-12 Defensive Jaylen Clark is out with an Achilles injury suffered in the regular-season finale, while big man Adem Bona is questionable after leaving the Pac-12 tournament semifinals with a shoulder injury.

Both are huge losses but UCLA has plenty of players ready to step up in their absence, as freshman Amari Bailey is a dangerous offensive weapon who has thrived with more playing time (26 points in the quarterfinal against Colorado, Earth-shaking dunk called off in the final against Arizona) while fifth-year wing David Singleton is a deadly sharpshooter (career 43.6% shooter from behind the arc) and potent defender.

Things are a little bit iffier in the frontcourt if Bona misses time, but at least there are capable role players to fill the void in Mac Etienne and Kenneth Nwuba. Bona’s loss is the true question mark to me, not Clark's. 

Either way, count UCLA out at your own risk. The Bruins have been one of the best teams in the country and are extremely experienced with Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell leading the offense. They have the nation’s best defense according to some metrics and Mick Cronin has done a fantastic job thus far in Westwood.

UCLA blew out every non-Power Conference team it played this season, beating every opponent by at least 21 points — there were no close calls or letdowns. Give me the Bruins to get the job done against the nation’s luckiest team analytically. 

My best bet: UCLA -17.5 (-110 at bet365)

UNC Asheville vs UCLA spread analysis

The Bruins opened as huge 18-point favorites but have since moved down a half-point to -17.5 at current. 

Both teams were highly profitable in the betting market this season. UCLA has been a wagon at 20-12-2 ATS while UNC Asheville is 17-14-1 ATS. Both ran roughshod over their conference opponents — UCLA was 13-8-2 ATS against Pac-12 teams while UNC Asheville went 13-8 ATS in the Big South. 

The Big South checks in at 26th in conference RPI rankings — seven spots away from the bottom at 32. Although it’s not an overly difficult conference to play in, the Bulldogs dominated with a 16-2 record. Although it was a down season for the Pac-12, the conference still checks in at seventh in RPI. 

Last year’s Big South representative — Longwood — earned a No. 14 seed. The Lancers were thoroughly trounced by Tennessee in the first round by a score of 88-56. 

UCLA advanced to the Sweet 16 in 2021-22 and made the Final Four in 2020-21. Some of those players are still on the roster with Campbell and Jaquez leading the way. That experience should be a big factor come March.

The Bruins also have the advantage of staying in the West bracket and playing in Sacramento, whereas UNC Asheville has to travel 2,570 miles across the country and play a late game that will tip off at 10:05 pm ET. 

UNC Asheville vs UCLA Over/Under analysis

The total is set at 134.5 across most books for this matchup, although 135 is also available. 

UCLA was an Under team to start the season, but that trend has reversed a bit lately as books have adjusted their numbers once they realized this defense was elite. The Bruins held a 9-14 O/U record in conference play but are 5-4 O/U in their last nine games. 

UNC Asheville holds a 17-15 O/U record. That mark becomes just 1-4 O/U when playing on a neutral court. Similar to UCLA, the Bulldogs started the season as an Under team before books started adjusting lines. Morrell’s squad is now 9-4 to the Over in its last 13 games. 

The Bruins have an elite defense and play at a slow pace, ranking 230th in adjusted tempo. While that should mean UNC Asheville’s offense has a limited scoring output, the Bulldogs’ resume shows that they may have some issues keeping the Bruins from running wild. In their three most difficult challenges this season, the Bulldogs allowed 85 points to Arkansas, 79 to Dayton, and 76 in regulation to UCF. 

I’m staying away from playing this total, although I have a slight preference for the Over as UCLA should be able to put up points in bunches if the Bulldogs’ performance against other capable offenses is any indication of what will happen Thursday night. 

UNC Asheville vs UCLA betting trend to know

UCLA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine NCAA Tournament games. Find more college basketball betting trends for UNC Asheville vs. UCLA.

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