The Saint Peter’s Peacocks just upset the Kentucky Wildcats in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. It was easily the biggest shocker of March Madness’ Day 1, and one most college basketball bettors will never forget.
The Peacocks are the 15 seed in the East Region and will now have a chance to make the Sweet 16 with a win over its next opponent, Murray State, who beat another really good mid-major team in San Francisco, in OT Thursday night.
Here are our March Madness picks and predictions for Saint Peter’s vs. Murray State in the Round of 32, Saturday, March 19.
Saint Peter's vs Murray State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Murray State opened as an 8.5-point favorite but has now shifted to -8 at most outlets. Meanwhile, the total has stayed steady at 129.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Saint Peter's vs Murray State predictions
Predictions made on 3/18/2022 at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Saint Peter's vs Murray State game info
• Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Saturday, March 19, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:45 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Saint Peter's vs Murray State betting preview
Injuries
Saint Peter's: No injuries to report.
Murray State: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Racers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Saint Peter's vs. Murray State.
Saint Peter's vs Murray State picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Saint Peter’s Peacocks are going to be remembered for decades. A little school in Jersey City just knocked off the mighty Kentucky Wildcats in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
This is March Madness!
However, the success for Saint Peter’s likely ends on Saturday. The Peacocks are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 48.2% and turning the ball over 20.8% of the time. From deep, the Peacocks have had success all season, knocking down 35.4% of shots. However, St. Peter’s isn’t shooting threes at a very high rate at all.
Instead, the Peacocks like to try and score inside, but have hit just 46.1% of shots inside the arc this season.
If we go back to the Peacocks’ game against Kentucky, the Shot Quality index had Kentucky winning that game by 22 points. That means that Kentucky had an awful shooting night with better quality looks. Meanwhile, St. Peter’s had worse looks, worse defense, and still managed to win in a high-variance spot.
Anytime a team like Saint Peter’s beats a team like Kentucky there’s luck involved. But that luck probably doesn’t stick around against Murray State.
Murray State is holding teams to 29.8% from deep and 50.7% from inside the arc. The Racers have earned 20.6% of turnovers and held teams to 25.3% offensive rebounds while also limiting fouls.
On the other side of the ball, Murray State just scored 92 on San Francisco (in overtime), and looks just fine offensively. The Racers are dominating the offensive glass, earning 35.3% of offensive rebounds while shooting 34.5% from deep and 53.6% from inside the arc.
The Peacocks were dedicated on the defensive end all season long. However, the fouling can get extreme, despite every other category being way above average.
I know there are a lot of believers out there when it comes to the Peacocks. But Murray State will be just fine.
Prediction: Murray State -8 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
Saint Peter’s is a really good defense and it showed against Kentucky. The Peacocks held an SEC team to 79 points through 45 minutes. However, Kentucky got some good looks and just didn’t capitalize. That’s the easiest way to put it.
Murray State will. The Racers just scored over 90 points with overtime against San Francisco, and they also know how to close games out, winning 31 of 33 contests this year. If this game stays a little close, Murray State will have lots of foul shot opportunities as well.
If the Racers score at that kind of pace against Saint Peter’s, the Peacocks will need to move a bit faster on the offensive end.
I’ll take the Over at 129.
Prediction: Over 129 (-110)
Best bet
The Murray State Racers should really be the story coming into this game. Saint Peter’s had a big upset win over Kentucky and an improbable run in the MAAC Tournament.
But the reality is, Murray State has been consistently great all year. In games where the Racers played poorly, they still found a way to win.
Saint Peter’s is really deep with about 10 guys who can play extended minutes. But as we get deeper into the tournament, you want your best guys out there.
Giving 40.7% of minutes to your bench will only hurt at this point, and that’s what Saint Peter’s is doing, at least for now. Murray State will take advantage.
Pick: Murray State -8 (-110)
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