NC State vs Creighton Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Packing it In Early

The NC State Wolfpack was one of the last teams to sneak into this NCAA tournament, and some may still question how they did so. The Creighton Bluejays are thus among the popular March Madness picks to advance without too much trouble on Friday, despite a relatively meager spread.

We examine the March Madness odds to bring you our free college basketball picks and predictions for North Carolina State vs Creighton on March 17, with tip set for 4:00 ET.

NC State vs Creighton best odds

NC State vs Creighton picks and predictions

Wondering how NC State got into the NCAA tournament is not being harsh. It is very much a valid question, given the Wolfpack beat just three tournament teams, one of them being Southern Conference champion Furman, and none since an overtime win against Miami on Jan. 14. Since then, NC State went 4-5 against teams ranked in Ken Pomeroy’s Top 100, the most impressive win being at home against No. 48 North Carolina, while also losing to No. 121 Syracuse in that stretch.

At no point this year did State come remotely close to competing with anyone on Creighton’s level. It did, however, twice play a team in the last four games with a similar style of offense. Clemson scored 96 at NC State on Feb. 25 and 80 more last week in the ACC tournament. The Tigers shot 54.9% from the field in those two games combined and 48.8% from deep. They went to the free-throw line 38 times.

All of that should be replicable for Creighton on Friday. The Bluejays and the Tigers run eerily similar offenses; Creighton just does it better.

They both average about 68 possessions per game and 17 seconds per offensive possession. They both shoot an effective field goal percentage of 54% and change, and they both turn over the ball 16-plus% of the time.

This goes on to such an extent it is beyond a coincidence. 36% shooting from beyond the arc this season, taking threes on about 40% of their possessions, moving the ball around to assist on more than half their made buckets — all things both teams do. A few strong rebounders, junior PJ Hall and senior Hunter Tyson for Creighton, and a pair of 3-point shooters, Hall and Tyson again, drive both offenses.

Whatever Clemson did to NC State, Creighton should be able to, as well. Particularly given the Bluejays’ offense is much better, overall.

This clear State skepticism can tie to the Wolfpack, as well, not just a comparison to a team sitting at home after losing in the NIT, though that reality itself is condemning of NC State. Most of the time, any stat prefaced with “since [some date]” is choosing that date because a differing trend ended just before that. “Won four out of its last five” may as well mean “won four out of its last six.” But looking at North Carolina State, extend past its 4-5 straight-up stretch since Feb. 7 and look back to Feb. 1, an addition that grants the Wolfpack two more wins.

Since then, NC State’s defense has ranked No. 145 in the country, per the Torvik ratings. That is, to put it bluntly, bad. Only five at-large teams rank lower, including First Four-entrant Pittsburgh.

A defense that bad cannot be trusted against the Bluejays, certainly not when the Bluejays’ approach has already been proven against the Wolfpack. Creighton has scored 77 or more points in five of its last eight games. It should have no trouble doing so again Friday afternoon.

My best bet: Creighton team total Over 76.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

NC State vs Creighton spread analysis

There is a slight surprise touting the Bluejays: Creighton is better defensively this year. It does not foul much and reduces opponents’ rate of taking 3-pointers better than all but eight other teams in the country.

Worse yet for NC State’s hopes, the Wolfpack is one of the worst teams in the country at drawing fouls, and its 3-point percentages are all middling. North Carolina State makes its living offensively by protecting the ball more than anything else, a solid fundamental approach that Creighton will not inherently disrupt, but also an approach with a relatively low ceiling.

This spread has held steady, favoring the Bluejays by 5.0 or 5.5, both numbers available as of Friday morning. In fact, shopping around can find encouraging juice at either Creighton -5.5 or NC State +5.0, indicating this number should continue to waffle between them.

While Clemson beat the Wolfpack by 25 and 26 points in the last few weeks, those were NC State’s only ATS losses in its last six games. Those other four teams featured offenses that did not shoot or move the ball as well as Clemson (and Creighton) did, though Virginia Tech comes close, notable given the Hokies hung 77 on North Carolina State.

NC State vs Creighton Over/Under analysis

Creighton’s offense is finding a groove, hitting the Over in four straight games before losing to Xavier in the Big East tournament. Those games were not squeaking over the total, instead cruising past it by an average of 14.5 points. The key has been the Bluejays’ shooting from deep.

In the last month, Creighton has hit 38.9% of its threes while shooting 27.1 per game. Up until then, it had been shooting just 35.1% from deep on 24.1 attempts per game.

That kind of uptick could be enough to propel this Denver showcase Over its total of 148.5.

NC State vs Creighton betting trend to know

Creighton is 3-2 ATS in the last two NCAA tournaments, notable in that NC State’s entire roster boasts 19 minutes of NCAA tournament experience. Find more college basketball betting trends for NC State vs. Creighton.

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