Miami vs USC Midwest Region Picks: Canes Lost Among the Trees

The No. 10 seed Miami Hurricanes take on the No. 7 seed USC Trojans in Round 1 of March Madness on Friday afternoon.

Oddsmakers are expecting a close battle between these squads with March Madness odds hitting the board with USC installed as a 1.5-point favorite.

Here are our best free Miami vs. USC March Madness picks and predictions for March 18.

Miami vs USC odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line opened with the Trojans installed at -1.5 with the Over/Under at 139.5. The line hasn't seen any movement as of Thursday afternoon and the total has stayed steady as well, although some books are starting to show 140.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Miami vs USC predictions

• Prediction: USC -1.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 139.5 (-110)
• Best bet: USC -1.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/17/2022 at 11:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Miami vs USC game info

• Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, SC
• Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:10 p.m. ET
• TV: truTV

Miami vs USC betting preview

Injuries

Miami: Harlond Beverly G (Out).
USC: Reese Dixon-Waters G (Questionable), Isaiah White G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 6-1 in Miami's last seven games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Miami vs. USC.

Miami vs USC picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

This is an intriguing matchup because both of these teams have had similar success since the end of January but are built practically the inverse of each other.

Since Jan. 26, the Hurricanes have gone 9-5 straight up (9-4-1 against the spread) with losses to tough teams such as Duke, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Virginia (twice). 

Since Jan. 29 the Trojans are 9-4 SU, with their only defeats during that span coming against the cream of the Pac-12 crop in Arizona and UCLA (while also boasting a home victory against the Bruins during that span).

The Hurricanes are a guard-dominant team that limits turnovers and ranks 18th in the country with a 47.8 field goal percentage. However, they're small, struggle on the glass, and don't defend well, ranking outside the Top 300 in both rebounding rate and opponent field goal percentage (46.6%). 

The Trojans have one of the tallest lineups around, dominate on the boards and defend very well, ranking 25th in rebounding rate and 11th in opponent FG% (38.9%). That said, USC doesn't have the greatest perimeter play and is among the worst free-throw shooting teams in the tourney. 

While that poor aim at the charity stripe could be costly in what is expected to be a close game, the gulf between the defensive play of these two teams is much larger than the gap between their success on offense.

The Trojans rank a respectable 75th in the nation with a 45.4 FG%, and that combined with some strong rebounding on the offensive glass should help them score enough to win and cover this spread. 

Prediction: USC -1.5 (-110)

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Over/Under analysis

The Hurricanes' defense has been dreadful at times and ranks 210th in the country with 71 points per game allowed. They won't be able to defend against a long Trojans lineup led by 6-foot-10 center Isaiah Mobley, 6-foot-9 forward Chevez Goodwin, and 6-foot-8 guard Drew Peterson, who all average double-digits in points. 

That said, the Canes can fill up the hoop, putting up 74.8 ppg. And their trio of dynamic perimeter players (Kameron McGusty, Charlie Moore, and Isaiah Wong) who all drop more than 12 ppg and can snipe from outside, might be a tad too quick for the Trojans to completely shut down. 

With the Over 6-1 in Miami's last seven games we're expecting this game to go above the total.

Prediction: Over 139.5 (-110)

Best bet

The Trojans are just 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite but that's because they often tend to win games by close scores.

With this line set at just -1.5, we're inclined to side with a Trojans team that has only lost to some very tough opponents in Arizona and UCLA over the last seven weeks. 

Southern Cal's sizable advantages on the defensive end of the floor and on the glass should lead to a win and cover against a poor defensive squad. 

Pick: USC -1.5 (-110)

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