Iona vs UConn Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Gaels Can't Hang With Huskies

The Iona Gaels will bring their 14-game winning streak into Albany, NY on Friday when they take on the Connecticut Huskies in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

March Madness odds have UConn as a heavy favorite, at the No. 4 seed Huskies (25-8) were once ranked among the top teams in the country, and are looking to deliver for those backing them with March Madness picks by winning in the Big Dance for the first time since 2016.

Thirteen-seed Iona (27-7) won the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament to earn an automatic bid in the tournament.

Iona owns one of the longest winning streaks in the country, but the Gaels are now running into arguably one of the nation’s best teams, no matter what the seeding might say. We’ll dig deeper into this West Region matchup in our college basketball picks and predictions for Iona vs Connecticut on Friday, March 17.

Iona vs UConn best odds

Iona vs UConn picks and predictions

After a win over the Villanova Wildcats on Dec. 28, Connecticut was 14-0, with many pundits pegging the Huskies as an early title contender. Losing six of their next eight took some of the shine off that start, but the Huskies never really fell off the radar. After that midseason slide, UConn would go on to win nine of 10 before falling by two points to the Marquette Golden Eagles in the Big East Tournament finale.

The Huskies may have dropped to a No. 4 seed, but most of the advanced rating systems think they’re closer to a No. 1. KenPom has Connecticut as the fourth-best team in the country, while Sagarin has it at No. 6. Even the Massey composite ratings puts UConn at No. 9 in the nation. Outside of the selection committee, just about everyone else has the Huskies ranked among college basketball’s elite.

The main consequence of that seeding is a tougher-than-expected opening matchup against Iona. Rick Pitino has the Gaels playing their best basketball of the year, coming off a 76-55 demolition of the Marist Red Foxes in the MAAC title game.

Only two teams have even played Iona within single digits during its current 14-game winning streak. Iona may not have elite talent, but they are solid on both offense and defense. Three Gaels are averaging over 15 points per game, and the team is holding opponents to an average of just 65.9 points on 41.1% shooting. 

In other words, the Gaels aren’t going to be a pushover on Friday. Unfortunately, this just isn’t a team that has the gas to compete with the likes of UConn. Iona hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 1980, and the best team they played all year was probably the Vermont Catamounts. To their credit, the Gaels won that game easily, but it means UConn is a huge step up in competition for them.

Iona hasn’t seen a duo like Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins this year. The Gaels haven’t had to deal with the athleticism, size and length that UConn brings to the table. And while Pitino can get teams ready for big games, even he has admitted that it will be “no picnic” playing against the Huskies. 

KenPom thinks Connecticut should be something like a 13.5-point favorite in this game. Sagarin rates the Huskies as about 11.5 points better than the Gaels. Yet everywhere we look, UConn is a single-digit favorite.

That’s enough of a gap for me to feel very confident about backing the Huskies tonight. Iona may be on fire right now, but the Huskies are the ice-cold answer to everything they bring to the table.

My best bet: Connecticut -9 (-110 at DraftKings)

Iona vs UConn spread analysis

UConn opened this game as an 8.5-point favorite. That number has gone up a bit as the game approaches, with Connecticut -9.5 being the most common line at the time of this writing.

Both teams have been great against the spread for bettors this year. Iona owns a 20-14 ATS record, while the Huskies are 21-11-1 ATS on the season.

If either of these teams were playing just about anyone else, you might be able to ride their trends, but both teams are killing it against the spread heading into the tournament. Iona has covered in six of its last eight, while UConn has beaten the number in five of its last six.

With both teams coming into the game playing well, we have to go back to simply comparing what these teams bring to the table. Iona was the class of the MAAC and deserves respect, but UConn is a potential dark horse to win a national championship this year. There’s a clear talent gap on both offense and defense, and the Huskies look like the better team even before you consider the differences in strength of schedule.

This is essentially a battle of great vs. merely good, and UConn should win comfortably. I’m laying the points with Connecticut.

Iona vs UConn Over/Under analysis

The total for this matchup opened at 143, but that number has come down precipitously since then. As of Thursday afternoon, the Over/Under is down to just 140.5 points, though there are still books offering numbers in the 141-142 range as well.

Both teams are scoring a lot of points this year, while locking down on opposing teams, particularly when it comes to outside shooting. UConn plays to an average total of 143.8, with Iona coming in at 142.5, the kind of numbers that justify the total sportsbooks initially put on the game.

So why as the number dropped? Both of these teams have been playing tighter, slower, and lower-scoring games as of late, particularly in their respective conference tournaments. Iona has hit the Under three times in a row, with all three totals coming in at 131 or lower. The Huskies have hit the Under four straight times, with only one total of 140 or more in that span.

Both of these teams play solid defense, and I’m particularly inclined to think that Connecticut can give the Gaels a lot of trouble on the defensive end. I’d go with the Under if you want to bet the total in this game, though I do think the number is close to correct, especially now that it has come down by a point or two at most books. 

Iona vs UConn betting trend to know

Connecticut is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iona vs. UConn.

Iona vs UConn game info

Iona vs UConn key injuries

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