Florida Atlantic vs Memphis Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Earning Their Stripes in Round 1

The 9-seed FAU Owls do battle with the 8-seed Memphis Tigers in an NCAA Tournament East Region First Round game on Friday afternoon, and we've got your best March Madness picks.

The Owls make just their second-ever appearance in the NCAA Tournament. It made the Field of 64 in 2002, failing to 2-seed Alabama in Greenville, SC.

The Tigers punched their ticket with an American Athletic Conference (AAC) tournament victory over Houston, a 1-seed, in the final. It has won at least one game in each of its past three NCAA Tournament appearances.

Can FAU pull the minor March Madness odds upset to win its first-ever game in the Big Dance, or will Memphis keep its streak of winning at least one tournament game alive? We’ll discuss in our college basketball picks for FAU vs. Memphis on Friday, March 17.

Florida Atlantic vs Memphis best odds

Florida Atlantic vs Memphis picks and predictions

These two institutions have never met on the hardwood, and they’ll do so in Columbus, Ohio of all places. These schools do have a history, however, as FAU won its first-ever postseason game against Memphis in the 2007 New Orleans Bowl. 

FAU has done just fine this season, posting 31 wins, which ties College of Charleston and Houston for the most victories in the 2022-23 campaign.

FAU managed a solid 2-1 record in Quad 1 games, while posting a 4-2 mark in Q2 games, and a combined 23-0 mark in Q3 and Q4 contests. It ranked No. 32 in offensive efficiency, while checking in at No. 36 in defensive efficiency.

Memphis had similar success, and these teams mirror each other in a lot of ways. While FAU was No. 13 in NET rankings — a tool that basically replaces the old RPI ranking system — Memphis was No. 23 in the NET, or NCAA Evaluation Tool.

The Tigers picked up four Q1 victories in eight chances, while going 9-3 against the Q2. It was a combined 13-1 against Q3 and Q4 opponents. It was No. 26 in offensive efficiency, and No. 35 in defensive efficiency. As you can see, there is a reason many books and experts have this as a toss-up game.

I think the slight edge goes to Memphis, as Kendric Davis and DeAndre Williams are legitimate NBA prospects, and head coach Anfernee Hardaway has done a great job at his alma mater. Dusty May’s Owls won’t go quietly into the night, however, but eventually, Memphis taps into its previous NCAA Tournament experience to win a close battle.

My best bet: Memphis moneyline (-122 at FanDuel)

Florida Atlantic vs Memphis spread analysis

The Owls heads to Columbus with five covers in the past seven games overall, while going an impressive 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 games against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600.

But the bright lights and big stage of the NCAA Tournament should be too much for the young Owls, while the Tigers simply need to look back to last season when they played in an 8/9 game, winning as a 9-seed against Boise State in the first round. They gave No. 1 seed Gonzaga all it could handle in the second round, too, falling 82-78. 

This Memphis team is close to doing big things. Actually, both are, and it’s a shame someone has to go home, as both are criminally underseeded.

The Tigers have covered in four of the past five games overall, while going 5-2 ATS in the past seven games against teams with a winning overall record. The Tigers are also 5-1 ATS in the past six tries against teams with a winning record. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in the past four games following a straight-up win, too.

Bank on Memphis winning on the moneyline, and if you lay the points, the Tigers simply need to win by a bucket at most shops.

Florida Atlantic vs Memphis Over/Under analysis

FAU rolled up 79.3 PPG during the regular season, which was No. 26 overall in the country. It also ranked in the Top 50 in field-goal percentage (47.2%) and 3-point percentage (37.8%). However, if this team has an Achilles’ heel, especially in a close game, it’s a mediocre 71.2% mark at the free-throw line.

Defensively, the Owls were solid defensively, allowing just 65.7 PPG, while holding teams to a 41.1% field-goal percentage. Teams did manage to hit 33.3% from behind the arc.

Memphis racked up 79.5 PPG in the regular season, while shooting 48.1% from the field, which, again, shows how similar these teams are. The Tigers aren’t great from downtown, going just 34.4% from behind the arc, but Memphis is a much better free-throw shooting team at 74.1%.

At the defensive end, the Tigers struggled with 72.6 PPG, although they held teams to just 40.9 field-goal percentage, while limiting teams to 31.4% from downtown.

The Under is 18-7-1 in the past 26 games for the Owls on a neutral floor, while going 5-2 in the past seven games after a victory by 20 or more points. The Under is 5-2 in the past seven NCAA Tournament games for Memphis, too.

Florida Atlantic vs Memphis betting trend to know

The Tigers have covered in five of the past six neutral-site games, while going 5-2 in the past seven games against winning teams. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis.

Florida Atlantic vs Memphis game info

Florida Atlantic vs Memphis key injuries

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