March Madness Picks: Best Bets and Player Props for Thursday Sweet 16 Action

Prop bet #1: Newton’s law

We get a replay of last year’s national title game when the No. 1 UConn Huskies take on the No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs on the East side of the bracket on Thursday night.

A big part of Connecticut’s win over SDSU in the final was Tristen Newton, who scored a team-high 19 points while attacking the Aztecs interior and getting to the foul line (8-for-8 on FTAs).

This time around, SDSU isn’t as sound defensively and is missing a proven rim protector to sway foes from finishing in the paint. On the season, San Diego State ranks 295th in points allowed per play when it comes to opponents finishing at the rim.

Newton scored 13 points in limited work in the Round of 64 blowout of Stetson and finished with 20 points — despite a 0-for-6 day from beyond the arc — in the victory over Northwestern, getting to the foul line for 6 of 7 from the stripe.

His scoring prop for the Sweet 16 is set at 14.5 points with the Over priced as high as -125 and sharper sportsbooks also setting the vig on Over 14.5 in the -120 range. However, you can find this same offering as low as -105 at FanDuel.

Projections for the Sweet 16 have Newton hovering around this total but the 6-foot-5 senior guard has the versatility to take what the defense gives him. The Aztecs protect the perimeter better than most but have a tough matchup with quick athletic guards and can get into foul trouble.

Newton will get inside for high-percentage looks and make SDSU pay from the charity stripe.

Tristen Newton prop: Over 14.5 points (-105 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Lip' service

If any Iowa State Cyclones player welcomes the up-tempo style of the Illinois Fighting Illini, it will be 6-foot-1 guard Tamin Lipsey.

Lipsey is a quick, aggressive playmaker who thrives in ISU’s transition attack, often leading the fast break and getting inside with an ability to create easy looks for his teammates.

He’s averaging just shy of five assists on the season and has dished out more than five dimes in three of his last four games. His Over/Under on assists in the Sweet 16 is at 4.5 with the Under a hefty favorite, and some books as pricy as -171.

The Illini have longer guards to throw at Lipsey, which could hinder his shot attempts and turn him into more of a distributor. And while Illinois plugs up the passing lanes in the halfcourt set (ranked 26th in opponent assist-to-FGM rate), that’s not how Iowa State’s offense operates (ranked 32nd in points per play in transition).

Player projections have Lipsey forecasted for as many as 4.7 assists, which looks pretty good when measured up against the Over 4.5 at +130 odds. It’s a contrarian play considering how the market is pricing this prop, but worth the squeeze.

Tamin Lipsey prop: Over 4.5 assists (+130 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Heel turn

The No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels are loaded with talent, which makes them a tough task for even the stingiest defenses in the land. The Alabama Crimson Tide, however, are not that.

Perhaps the biggest thorn in the side of the Crimson Tide this Thursday will be UNC forward Harrison Ingram. The 6-foot-7, 235-pound junior is a matchup nightmare for Nate Oats’ team, with Ingram able to body smaller defenders or blow past bigger ones. Alabama doesn’t have a solid matchup for the junior.

Ingram is scoring from all over in the NCAA Tournament. He finished with 17 points in the win over Michigan State, which included a 5-for-7 performance from beyond the arc. He’s a threat in face-u and the post, can finish the fastbreak, and can get on the offensive glass for put-backs.

Ingram, who averaged just over 12 points per game during the season, will see increased touches due to the tempo and scoring expected (total is 173.5) between these teams. His player projections for Thursday call for 14 points, which is well beyond his scoring prop of 11.5 points.

Some books have the Over 11.5 from Ingram priced as high as -145, but FanDuel is dealing that same wager at -118 as of Tuesday afternoon.

Harrison Ingram prop: Over 11.5 points (-118 at FanDuel)