The Pittsburgh Panthers are mired in mediocrity as they host the Louisville Cardinals tonight.
Find out why my Louisville vs. Pittsburgh predictions and college basketball picks expect the Cardinals to have a fairly easy go of things on Saturday, January 17.
Louisville vs Pittsburgh prediction
Louisville vs Pittsburgh best bet: Louisville -7.5 (-110)
The Pittsburgh Panthers have played just five Quad-1 opponents this season. Three of those games — against West Virginia, Villanova, and Miami — were played on the road, while their loss to UCF came on a neutral court.
And Pitt failed to score 70 points in any of them.
The 49-point outlier against West Virginia disregarded, the Panthers have scored between 61 and 69 points in the other four games. And while that in and of itself means nothing, it is worth noting that those games were all outings where they failed to make 3-point baskets.
It’s also telling that the Panthers posted their three lowest offensive rebounding marks in those games. And if you can’t hit outside shots or get second chances against this Louisville Cardinals defense, you could be in for a rough game.
Louisville ranks seventh nationally in shooting percentage allowed inside the arc, and 21st in eFG% overall. They also rebound at a high clip on the defensive end, rank Top 60 in offensive boards, and don’t allow many assisted baskets.
Making matters worse, the Panthers rely heavily on just seven players in their rotation. That works in games where they can control the tempo, but against a Louisville team that runs and lets fly from deep, it could lead to fatigue as the game goes on.
Cameron Corhen is the only player in that rotation who stands taller than 6-foot-6, and that will be problematic against Louisville. The Cardinals can rely on multiple bodies down low who create mismatches and help them control the glass.
The final factor is the charity stripe. Not only do the Panthers rank just 284th in frequency of getting to the line, but they’re also shooting just 69.7% from the charity stripe.
Pitt has yet to show they can score 70+ against a quality opponent. That won’t be enough against this Louisville offense, which will hit enough outside shots and dominate the glass while covering the spread.
Louisville vs Pittsburgh same-game parlay
With Pitt struggling to reach 70 points, I see this game going under the total. Louisville’s offense has taken a step back without Mikel Brown Jr, and it’s led to them failing to breach 80 points in any of their last four games.
And while the Cardinals will do everything they can to push the tempo, Pitt will look to slow things down, especially early.
I expect things to speed up as the game goes along, simply because of Louisville’s depth, but we should see a slow enough pace early on to keep this total low.
Louisville vs Pittsburgh SGP
- Louisville -7.5
- Under 152.5
Louisville vs Pittsburgh odds
- Spread: Louisville -7.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh +7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Louisville -315 | Pittsburgh +256
- Over/Under: Over 152.5 (-110) | Under 152.5 (-110)
Louisville vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know
Louisville has hit the game total Under in eight of their last 12 away games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. Pittsburgh.
How to watch Louisville vs Pittsburgh
| Location | Petersen Events Center, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Saturday, January 17, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Louisville vs Pittsburgh key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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