The No. 1-ranked Connecticut Huskies impressed some folks with their blowout win over Stetson in the first round. Following the first two days of this year’s March Madness picks, bettors poured more money on UConn to defend its national championship than any other team.
The early bets on the Huskies’ second-round matchup with the No. 9 Northwestern Wildcats further suggest the world believes in Connecticut. However, that doesn't give the Wildcats enough credit for advancing past FAU in the March Madness bracket.
UConn’s rout of a 16-seed should not have inflated the spread against Northwestern in the March Madness odds, and our free college basketball picks will explain why as we preview Northwestern vs. UConn on Sunday, March 24.
Northwestern vs UConn best odds
Northwestern vs UConn picks and predictions
Yes, Connecticut dominated every minute of its win against Stetson. Winning the first 10 minutes 23-4 showcased a defensive focus that would raise the Huskies’ ceiling even further.
Give UConn credit for that....but remember who the Huskies faced.
The Huskies’ title odds dropping since that win were not so much a reflection of their own performance, as it was the result of Auburn’s loss to Yale. Without the Tigers awaiting in the Sweet Sixteen, UConn should have a clear path to the Elite Eight.
However, Northwestern could make things interesting on Sunday night.
If the officiating crew had not utterly botched two calls in the closing minutes of regulation, Northwestern probably would have upset FAU in regulation. Boo Buie had a transition bucket halted by a whistle blowing the play dead because a player was on the floor on the other end of the court. Following that, an errant and incorrect whistle in the final minute took possession away from the Wildcats.
Would folks be more impressed if Northwestern had won in regulation? Was this spread bet all the way up to +14.5 because the Wildcats so struggled in the first half? Frankly, a 39-point second half should have then inspired some belief.
Buie may be the best offensive player on the court on Sunday night, while Ryan Langborg has now starred in four tournament games across the last two years, his 27 points on Friday driving the Wildcats to their upset. Stetson’s guards were hyped as a possible threat against UConn, yet Northwestern’s are better and more tested.
The line movement towards the Huskies has been an extreme overreaction, so we're fading the public on Sunday.
My best bet: Northwestern +14 (-108 at DraftKings)
Northwestern vs UConn same-game parlay
Northwestern +14
Ryan Langborg Over 13.5 points
UConn team total Under 75.5 points
Langborg was not only the key to the Wildcats' win in the first round of the NCAA Tournament but is singlehandedly the reason the program reached March Madness in the first place. When point guard Ty Berry suffered a meniscus injury in early February, Langborg was the guy who stepped up the most.
In the 10 Big Ten games before Berry’s injury, Langborg averaged 10.1 points and 2.1 assists while posting a usage rate north of 20% only three times. In Langborg’s eight full games since then, he has boasted 16.8 points and 3.3 assists while posting a usage rate higher than 20% seven times.
Part of Langborg’s hidden impact has been that by improving Northwestern’s offense, its defense improved as well. The Wildcats prefer a slow pace, and it has gotten slower since Berry’s injury, ranking No. 340 in the country. Made buckets force opponents to slow down.
Northwestern will want to emphasize that in Brooklyn, given UConn has more talent. Fewer possessions will reduce that gap’s impact, and in that regard, Langborg’s points prop is correlated to UConn’s team total.
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Northwestern vs UConn spread and Over/Under analysis
The first offerings on this game saw Northwestern as a 12.5-point underdog. Even that number was influenced by Friday’s results, with advanced metrics suggesting this should be a 10-point spread.
Yet, by Friday night it had risen to +14.5 at some books, with most settling at +14.
The total did not move with that spread, opening at 135.5 and remaining there into Saturday. The lack of correlated movement to the spread suggests the betting public viewed the +12.5 as entirely mispriced.
Northwestern vs UConn betting trend to know
The Wildcats have gone 8-3 against the spread since Berry’s injury, including 5-1 as underdogs with three outright wins. Find more college basketball betting trends for Northwestern vs. UConn.
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Northwestern vs UConn game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, March 24, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Northwestern vs UConn key injuries
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