The No. 10 Missouri Tigers face the No. 7 Miami Hurricanes in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday night.
Both teams have struggled to defend the arc, which is why my Missouri vs. Miami predictions are backing one of the Tigers' top perimeter shooters in Trent Pierce.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this West Region contest on March 20.
Missouri vs Miami prediction
Who will win Missouri vs Miami?
Miami: These teams are almost mirror images, with similar starting lineups as well as strengths and weaknesses. That said, the Miami Hurricanes have the better turnover differential and rebounding margin. That's enough to offset the travel advantage for the Missouri Tigers.
Missouri vs Miami best bet: Trent Pierce Over 1.5 threes (-115)
The Miami Hurricanes are 324th in the country in opponent 3PT% (37.4%) since January 1. The Missouri Tigers offense will need to take advantage of that weakness which means getting the ball to Trent Pierce.
The 6-foot-10 wing is a matchup nightmare who can stretch the floor. His quick release and catch-and-shoot ability makes him especially dangerous with Miami struggling against movement shooters.
Pierce is coming off a game against Kentucky where he went 1-for-4 from deep. However, he cleared 1.5 treys in his previous six contests, knocking down 2.5 threes per game at a 42.9% clip.
COVERS INTEL: Miami's defensive scheme gives up a high frequency of 3-point attempts, with the Canes 292nd in opponent 3-point rate (44.1%) over the last month. 
Missouri vs Miami same-game parlay
Pierce will get open looks thanks to high-scoring forward Mark Mitchell, who draws defenders and kicks the ball out to teammates on the perimeter. Mitchell has dropped at least four assists in 11 of his last 18 games, averaging 4.1 apg over that span.
With Mitchell finding open shooters and Pierce draining outside shots, back Mizzou to go Over it's team total for the ninth time in 12 games.
Missouri vs Miami SGP
- Trent Pierce Over 1.5 threes
- Mark Mitchell Over 3.5 assists
- Missouri team total Over 72.5
Our Big Dance SGP: Threes company
In addition to Pierce, let's also back Jayden Stone (1.9 threes per game, 38.2 3PT%) to torch the Canes from downtown.
Miami isn't the only team that can't defend the arc, with Mizzou outside the Top 300 in opponent 3PT% (36.5%) and opponent 3-point rate (43.1%).
Tre Donaldson is Miami's best 3-point shooter and he has drilled at least three triples in five of his last eight games. Meanwhile, Tru Washington has cleared 1.5 threes in five of his previous seven.
Missouri vs Miami SGP
- Trent Pierce Over 1.5 threes
- Jayden Stone Over 1.5 threes
- Tre Donaldson Over 1.5 threes
- Tru Washington Over 1.5 threes
Missouri vs Miami odds
- Spread: Missouri +2 | Miami -2
- Moneyline: Missouri +110 | Miami -130
- Over/Under: Over 147 | Under 147
Missouri vs Miami betting trend to know
The Over is 16-9 in Miami's last 25 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Missouri vs. Miami.
How to watch Missouri vs Miami
| Location | Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Friday, March 20, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | truTV |
Missouri vs Miami key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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