Clemson vs Arizona Predictions, Picks, and Odds for March Madness Sweet 16 Matchup

In a March Madness bracket void of many “Cinderellas,” the West Region’s most unlikely Sweet 16 team is the No. 6 Clemson Tigers. 

The Tigers, who upset No. 3 Baylor to advance to the second week, face the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats in the regional quarterfinals in Los Angeles tonight.

March Madness odds have the Wildcats as sizable favorites after Arizona dodged Dayton in the Round of 32. That’s fine with Clemson, which advanced despite being the underdog in its opening two tournament tilts.

I quickly break down the spread and Over/Under total for this Sweet 16 showdown and give my best March Madness picks and predictions for Clemson vs. Arizona on Thursday, March 28.

Clemson vs Arizona best odds

Clemson vs Arizona picks and predictions

The Clemson Tigers have leaned on their defense to get to the Sweet 16, holding an explosive Baylor offense to only 64 points on 39% shooting and giving up only 56 points on 30% shooting to New Mexico. That stinginess has helped Clemson overcome some less-than-impressive offensive efforts from their star scorers.

Standout center P.J. Hall saw foul trouble dampen his output in the first two games (played just 19 minutes in each) while sharpshooting guard Joe Girard didn’t shoot well from deep, going just 3-for-13 from beyond the arc in the opening two rounds.

Given the spread and the higher total, as well as the prospective pace this game will be played at considering the Arizona Wildcats rank No. 6 in tempo, the Tigers need those scorers to step up — especially Girard.

On the season, “Logo Joe” has been Clemson’s top perimeter player. He shot 41.4% from distance, knocking down an average of 2.9 triples on seven attempts a game. However, as mentioned, his touch from outside has been off in the two NCAA tilts in Memphis.

The Tigers take on a Wildcats defense that ranks Top 10 in defensive efficiency but has a soft spot on the perimeter. Arizona is 146th and 211th in points allowed per play to “catch-and-shoot” and “off-the-dribble” 3-point playsets, according to ShotQualityBets. That’s seen 32.5% of points against the Wildcats come from 3-pointers (272nd).

Clemson, on the other hand, thrives in those 3-point looks, ranked 25th and 16th in the country in points per play in the offensive flip of those metrics. Before the NCAA Tournament, Giard had made three or more triples in nine of the previous 12 games, including 3 of 7 in the loss to Boston College in the ACC tournament.

His player projections for Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup call for three makes from downtown but I believe he has a higher ceiling considering the game-script says Clemson will be trailing in a quick-paced game and needing big buckets from beyond the arc.

Some books are dealing Girard Over 2.5 3-pointers as high as -125 as of Tuesday morning, but you can find that same prop at -115 at bet365.

My best bet: Joe Girard Over 2.5 made 3s (-115 at bet365)

Clemson vs Arizona same-game parlay

Joe Girard Over 2.5 made 3s

Joe Girard Over 13.5 points

Arizona moneyline

+225 at bet365

The Tigers will be trailing, so we’ll see an uptick in outside shooting from Girard, who is forecasted for at least three triples.

When the going gets tough, Girard and Hall are the only guys touching the ball. Hall can’t stay on the floor, which means “Logo Joe” needs to step up his scoring.

All the game models have Arizona advancing but can’t concur on a margin of victory. We’ll go safe and say the Wildcats win outright.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Clemson vs Arizona spread and Over/Under analysis

• Oddsmakers opened Arizona as short as -7 but early play on the Wildcats has pushed this spread to -7.5 as of Tuesday morning, with one book still holding at -6.5 (-118). Covers Consensus shows 58% of early college basketball picks on Arizona.

• Clemson has won and covered as an underdog in the opening two games of the NCAA Tournament, improving to 8-1 ATS when getting points this season.

• The Over/Under total hit the board at 151.5 points at most sportsbooks and now sits as high as 152.5 as of Tuesday. Covers Consensus data reports 57% of picks on the Over.

• Both Clemson and Arizona have stayed Under the total in all of their postseason games (conference and NCAA tournaments), with the Wildcats 0-4 O/U and the Tigers at 0-3 O/U. 

Clemson vs Arizona betting trend to know

Clemson is 8-1 ATS as an underdog this season and 13-4-1 ATS as a pup the past two seasons. Find more college basketball betting trends for Clemson vs. Arizona.

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Clemson vs Arizona game info

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