Two of the best offenses in the ACC do battle on Monday night when the Louisville Cardinals travel to Cameron Indoor Stadium to face the Duke Blue Devils.
Both teams are led by exciting freshmen in Mikel Brown Jr. and Cameron Boozer. But my Louisville vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for Monday, January 26 are focusing on Boozer's frontcourt mate, Patrick Ngongba II.
Louisville vs Duke prediction
Louisville vs Duke best bet: Patrick Ngongba II Over 9.5 points (-120)
When the Duke Blue Devils and Louisville Cardinals met a few weeks ago, Duke starting center Patrick Ngongba II was involved in one of the more bizarre calls of the season.
Midway through the first half, he and Louisville’s Kasean Pryor were each slapped with technical fouls as the two teams returned to the floor following a timeout. Seconds later, the big man picked up his third foul and was done for some time.
He ended up playing just 10 minutes in that game, scoring a season-low four points and attempting just four shots.
Given the extra motivation, I love getting his scoring total at 9.5 points. This is a great matchup for him against a Louisville defense that has shown it can be pushed around inside by physical frontcourts.
With the attention the Cardinals will have to pay towards Cameron Boozer, it’s unlikely they will afford any help defense. And Ngongba has shown the ability to win those one-on-one matchups.
Not only is he posting a 65.7% eFG% on the year, but he gets to the charity stripe often behind an eye-popping 75.7% free-throw rate. That’s problematic for Louisville, which ranks 154th in sending players to the foul line.
The Blue Devils attempt more than 44% of their shots from close range, and getting to the rim will be their focus against the Cardinals. And in the four games since their prior meeting, he’s averaged 12.8 points.
Look for Ngongba to have a double-digit scoring night at Cameron Indoor, where his scoring average is more than two points higher than what he manages away from home.
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Louisville vs Duke same-game parlay
Duke’s emphasis on controlling the frontcourt leaves it vulnerable to outside shooting. The Blue Devils are allowing the third-highest 3P% in ACC play with opponents making 37.8% of their attempts.
No team in college hoops fires from distance at a higher rate than the Cardinals, and Ryan Conwell has a perpetual green light. He’s taken at least 11 shots outside the arc in his last eight appearances, and has made 16 of them in his last four games.
Mikel Brown Jr. will help Conwell get high-quality looks, and his return to the lineup was a welcome sight against Virginia Tech, where he dropped six dimes. He may be forced to give up the ball more often against the 6-foot-6 Isaiah Evans.
The Cardinals rank in the Top 30 in assist rate, while the Blue Devils rank 177th in assist rate against. This is a great spot for Brown to find his open teammates for open treys, and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t get at least four dimes.
Louisville vs Duke SGP
- Patrick Ngongba II Over 9.5 points
- Ryan Conwell Over 3.5 made threes
- Mikel Brown Jr. Over 3.5 assists
Our beyond the arc SGP: Duke dominates
Louisville is a much better team with Brown on the floor, and the Cardinals were beating Duke at home for quite some time before letting go of the rope.
But this game is at Cameron Indoor, where Duke always tends to get a favorable whistle. The Blue Devils rank second in ACC play at getting to the line, while ranking first in fewest FTs trips allowed.
With how well the Blue Devils defend the rim and force turnovers, this game will likely slip away from the Cardinals late as Duke players parade to the charity stripe.
Louisville vs Duke SGP
- Patrick Ngongba II Over 9.5 points
- Ryan Conwell Over 3.5 made threes
- Mikel Brown Jr. Over 3.5 assists
- Duke -7.5
Louisville vs Duke odds
- Spread: Louisville +8.5 | Duke -8.5
- Moneyline: Louisville +340 | Duke -450
- Over/Under: Over 157.5 | Under 157.5
Louisville vs Duke betting trend to know
Duke have covered the Spread in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. Duke.
How to watch Louisville vs Duke
| Location | Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date | Monday, January 26, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Louisville vs Duke key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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