A pair of 15-win teams collide in what should be a terrific Big Ten matchup when the Indiana Hoosiers meet the Maryland Terrapins on Sunday afternoon.
Indiana rolls into town fresh off a 74-70 home victory over Wisconsin that snapped a four-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Maryland has dropped three of its last four, including a 68-61 home loss to Northwestern.
Who will win Sunday’s Big Ten matchup? Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with our free college basketball picks and predictions for Indiana vs. Maryland on March 3.
Indiana vs Maryland best odds
Indiana vs Maryland picks and predictions
While Sunday’s Big Ten matchup won’t impact the final regular season conference championship race, both programs have plenty to play for, as each program is hoping for better tournament seeding in their conference tourney.
The Indiana Hoosiers head into College Park coming off a huge home victory over Wisconsin, but they’ve ridden the struggle bus as the away side. They’ve dropped four of their last five away tilts and are 2-6 overall in the visitors' jerseys this season.
The problems with the Hoosiers as the away team are numerous. They commit too many turnovers, aren’t a good 3-point shooting team, and their 70 points per game average as the visitors aren't going to win many away games in the Big Ten.
Having scoring issues on the road is never a good thing, and Indiana’s woes will only be magnified when it meets the conference's best-scoring defense.
The Maryland Terrapins are 11-5 at Xfinity Center this season, mainly because of their defense. They surrender the fewest points per game in the conference (64.4), but that number dips to 63.4 at home. The Terps' defense boasts the third-best field-goal percentage from inside the arc and tops the Big Ten in long-range three-point shooting defense.
The Maryland shooting defense can smother, allowing just 43% shooting from inside the arc at home. The Terps also allow the fourth-fewest offensive rebounds per game, keeping the Hoosiers from enjoying the few second-chance points opportunities that they already rely on.
While the Terps' defense will keep the Hoosiers' shooters at bay, the Maryland offense isn’t very good and the Indiana defense is decent enough to keep this game Under the total.
Maryland’s fatal flaw is its shooting, as the Terps rank dead last in the Big Ten in shooting from beyond the three-point line. In these two teams' previous encounter, Indiana held Maryland to 12.5% from downtown and 35% from inside the arc.
Expect another low-scoring affair on Sunday.
My best bet: Under 136.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Indiana vs Maryland same-game parlay
Under 136.5
Indiana +9
Indiana is coming off a solid home victory over a good Wisconsin team. The Hoosiers are 2-2-1 against the spread over their last five away contests and 3-4-1 ATS on the road this season.
In their December meeting, they covered as a -2.5 favorite and now visit a Maryland program with a 6-10-0 ATS mark at home this season.
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Indiana vs Maryland spread and Over/Under analysis
Outside of the total, this contest is difficult to bet on because neither program covers the spread consistently, and -9.0 is a lot for a team that is just 2-3 ATS in their last five home contests.
We haven’t seen any movement yet on the spread or the 136.5 total. Both programs have struggled to put the ball in the hoop, as we have the 12th and 13th best scoring teams in the Big Ten, respectively, while a lights-out Terrapins defense is allowing less than 65 points per game at Xfinity Center.
It wouldn’t be much of a surprise if money comes in on the Hoosiers and the Under, as the Terps have an O/U record of 5-11-0 to the Under at home.
Indiana vs Maryland betting trend to know
The Under is 8-0 in the Terrapins' last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Find more college basketball betting trends for Indiana vs. Maryland.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Indiana vs Maryland game info
| Location: | Xfinity Center, Mansfield, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, March 3, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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