Lottery watchers unite — there’s an elite freshman vs. freshman matchup in Provo on Saturday night as A.J. Dybantsa and the No. 16 BYU Cougars host Kingston Flemings and the No. 8 Houston Cougars.
BYU is desperate to right the ship after losing four of its last five games, yet it is receiving plenty of respect as just a 1.5-point underdog to a Houston team that has won 14 of its previous 15.
My Houston vs. BYU predictions & college basketball picks are keying in on Fleming’s assist prop for Saturday, February 7.
Houston vs BYU prediction
Houston vs BYU best bet: Kingston Flemings Over 5.5 assists (-115)
Part of the BYU Cougars’ recent collapse is due to a cratering defense that got popped for 99 points in an upset loss at Oklahoma State on Wednesday. That marked the third consecutive game in which Kevin Young’s squad has surrendered at least 86 points, and it moves them down to 202nd in adjusted defensive efficiency since January 17 (per BartTorvik).
During that same time span, the Houston Cougars lead the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Although the bookmakers expect a bounce-back from BYU on Saturday, recent numbers point to a significant advantage for Houston when it has the ball, so that’s where I’m setting my sights for Saturday’s best bet.
Point guard Kingston Flemings is only getting better as the year goes along, averaging 22.8 points and 6.2 assists across his last five games. The five-star freshman and future lottery pick has been given the keys to the kingdom, leading the team with a 26.1% usage rate, and his stock is only pointing up.
BYU ups the pace, ranking 48th in adjusted tempo (KenPom). Young’s squad will look to instill that style of play in Provo against a Houston team that prefers to slow things down, which should lead to a few more possessions than normal for Flemings to have the ball in his hands.
The precocious guard has racked up 6+ assists in six of his last seven games and stands a good chance of continuing that trend on Saturday.
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Houston vs BYU same-game parlay
BYU has taken care of poor competition but has struggled when stepping up in class, going 0-4 against ranked teams.
That’s a reputation the Cougars will need to shake before inspiring belief against the No. 1 overall team in BartTorvik since January 1.
A.J. Dybantsa will need to be at his best in a big matchup, and the gameplan should involve him getting plenty of one vs. one touches against a defense that isn’t built to shut down those kinds of looks.
Houston’s aggressive trap defense works great against most college teams, but Dybantsa is a future quality NBA player and can exploit his athleticism and size advantages.
Houston vs BYU SGP
- Kingston Flemings Over 5.5 assists
- A.J. Dybantsa Over 23.5 points
- Houston moneyline
Our beyond the arc SGP: Cougars offense unstoppable
Given BYU’s poor recent showings on the defensive end, it’s difficult to have much faith in the stop unit holding down Flemings or the Cougars.
Young’s game plan likely involves pushing the tempo and finding openings against a Houston defense that isn’t quite as stout as it has been in recent years, ranking 30th in adjusted efficiency since January 17 (BartTorvik).
Houston vs BYU SGP
- Kingston Flemings Over 5.5 assists
- Houston moneyline
- A.J. Dybantsa Over 23.5 points
- BYU Team Total Over 74.5
Houston vs BYU odds
- Spread: Houston -1.5 (-110) | BYU +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Houston -125 | BYU +105
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 (-105) | Under 150.5 (-115)
Houston vs BYU betting trend to know
Kingston Flemings has recorded more than 5.5 assists in six of his last seven contests. Find more college basketball betting trends for Houston vs. BYU.
How to watch Houston vs BYU
| Location | Marriott Center, Provo, UT |
| Date | Saturday, February 7, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Houston vs BYU key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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