Florida State vs Pittsburgh Odds, Picks and Predictions: Hinson Paces Panthers Offense in ACC Showdown

The Pittsburgh Panthers are pushing for their 20th win of the season and a better seed in the ACC Tournament when they host the Florida State Seminoles tonight.

The college basketball odds have Pitt laying -7.5 inside the Petersen Events Center, which has been a rare sight for the Panthers this past month. Tuesday’s game is just the third time Pittsburgh has played at home in the last eight contests, going 11-5 straight up and 9-6-1 against the spread as a host this season.

The Seminoles are tackling their second straight away game and third road tilt in the past four contests when they come to the Steel City. Florida State has only two wins in its last seven contests and is sliding down the ACC standings at the worst possible time.

I break down the spread and Over/Under for this conference clash and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for Florida State vs. Pittsburgh on March 5.

Florida State vs Pittsburgh best odds

Florida State vs Pittsburgh picks and predictions

Pittsburgh Panthers senior guard Blake Hinson is looking for a sensational sendoff in his final two home games of his college career. He’ll get a chance to do serious damage tonight against a Florida State Seminoles defense susceptible to outside shooting.

The Seminoles rank near the bottom of the ACC in defending from distance, allowing conference foes to fire at a 36% clip from outside. The Noles also enter tonight's contest 332nd and 336th in terms of points per play allowed to “catch and shoot” and “off-the-dribble” 3-pointers, according to ShotQualityBets.

Hinson is the sharpest shooter on a Panthers team that shoots a lot from outside. Pitt launches up more than 27 attempts from 3-point range per game (19th most), and eight of those come from Hinson. He knocks down about 3.5 triples per contest and averages 18.5 points on the year.

The Pitt forward's scoring prop for tonight sits at 17.5 points Over/Under, which is skewed a bit due to some lower-scoring games on the road. He managed just 10 points at Wake Forest and only eight at Clemson to close out February.

Last time out, Hinson scored 19 points in only 23 minutes due to foul trouble at Boston College, which saw him sit out the majority of the first half. He erupted in the final 20 minutes, finishing 7 for 9 from the floor. Had Hinson played his usual workload, he would have flirted with 30 points.

Projections for tonight’s return home have Hinson forecasted for 21.5 points, including just shy of four makes from distance. Given the matchup with Florida State’s porous perimeter defense and FSU’s offensive pace producing more possessions for Pitt, Hinson has a much higher ceiling than 17.5 points.

This will be just his fifth game at home in the past 13 contests, putting up 17, 17, 22, and 41 points in the previous four appearances inside the Petersen Events Center, where Hinson averages more than 19 points on the season.

His 3-point prop sits at 2.5 O/U with the Over heavily juiced at -150, but Hinson's scoring total presents just as much pop at Over 17.5 (-125). If you’re looking for more bang for your buck, the milestone markets have him scoring 20 or more at +130.

My best bet: Blake Hinson Over 17.5 points (-125 at bet365)

Florida State vs Pittsburgh same-game parlay

Blake Hinson Over 17.5 points

Blake Hinson Over 2.5 threes

Pittsburgh moneyline

+165 at bet365

Home court and an up-tempo game should give Hinson added possessions to top his point total tonight, with projections at 20-plus. Hinson is also expected to drain at least three triples, with models calling for closer to four makes from deep against the Noles’ poor perimeter defense.

Meanwhile, the Panthers are playing their best basketball at the right time, and win No. 20 is right in front of them.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Florida State vs Pittsburgh spread and Over/Under analysis

Oddsmakers opened Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point home favorite, and for the most part that spread has stuck, with some shops showing Pitt -8 as of Tuesday afternoon. According to Covers Consensus, 53% of picks are laying the points with the Panthers at home.

Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games overall, playing five of those away from Petersen Events Center. The Panthers play a plodding pace offensively, relying heavily on outside shooting and receiving 38.5% of their total points from 3-pointers (21st in the country).

Pitt puts up 76.6 points per home game, helping boost a 9-6-1 ATS record on its own floor. Tonight’s spread is the biggest the Panthers have faced as a favorite in ACC play, but they’ve made good on oddsmakers' expectations with a 14-4-1 ATS mark as betting chalk this year. 

Florida State has been in a freefall since late January, picking up only three wins in its last 10 games (3-6-1 ATS). The Noles play the quickest tempo in the ACC and thrive in transition, but struggle to score when they can’t get to the rim.

The Seminoles are 4-6 SU in true road games (5-5 ATS) and haven’t won away from Tallahassee since a trip to Boston College on February 6. Florida State pulls a tough matchup with a patient Pitt team that does work from a distance, as the Noles rank among the bottom of the ACC in defending triples. 

Tonight’s Over/Under total hit the board at 147 points and has since climbed to 148.5 at some books. Covers Consensus shows 61% of total picks coming in on the Over.

The Panthers’ outside shooting prowess has helped produce a 15-12-2 O/U count overall, including 8-7-1 O/U at home. Pitt has produced mixed results for total bettors in recent games but is 11-7-1 O/U as a favorite.

Florida State is also a solid Over team, with its up-tempo style producing a 17-11-1 O/U mark, with a 6-4 O/U count on the road. The Seminoles have gone Over in three of their last four contests and five of the last seven heading into tonight.

Florida State vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know

Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 20 of its last 34 games overall (+7.90 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida State vs. Pittsburgh.

Florida State vs Pittsburgh game info

Florida State vs Pittsburgh key injuries

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