Duke vs NC State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Blue Devils Continue Dominant Stretch

While Duke might be looking ahead to its game against UNC, the NC State Wolfpack tends to disappear in the second half. As a result, the Blue Devils could be in line to pad their stats when it comes to covering spreads this season.

Mar 4, 2024 • 12:19 ET • 4 min read
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Kyle Filipowski Duke Blue Devils NCAA College Basketball
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The Duke Blue Devils are chasing down the top seed in the ACC in the final week of conference play. That pursuit leads them to Raleigh for a run-in with the North Carolina State Wolfpack tonight.

The Blue Devils, who will wrap the ACC schedule with a home showdown against North Carolina, have been dominant in their last two games. They’ve covered as double-digit home chalk with two 25-point wins and the college basketball odds have them installed road favorites at NC State.

The Wolfpack nearly did Duke a favor this past weekend, putting a scare in top-seeded UNC. However, North Carolina State suffered its third loss in four games after blowing a 10-point lead over the Tar Heels and was crushed 42-25 in the second half.

I break down the spread and Over/Under for this crucial ACC clash and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for Duke at North Carolina State on Monday, March 4.

Duke vs NC State best odds

Duke vs NC State picks and predictions

The look-ahead spot looms large for the Duke Blue Devils, as they travel to Raleigh ahead of a classic college rivalry with North Carolina this coming weekend — a game that could decide the top seed in the conference. 

But to set up that showdown, Duke must stay focused on tonight and take down the NC State Wolfpack — a challenge that isn’t lost on head coach Jon Scheyer.

"They've blocked out a lot of noise through the whole year," Scheyer told reporters after this weekend’s win over Virginia. "They've just focused on what we have to do, and I think we've really gotten better from it."

The Blue Devils’ one-sided win allowed Scheyer to rest some of his key rotation players ahead of the final week of ACC play, a luxury NC State’s Kevin Keatts was not afforded this weekend. 

The Wolfpack battled tooth and nail against North Carolina and now face another ranked foe just 48 hours later. North Carolina State doesn’t have the same depth as Duke and the Wolfpack haven’t had enough gas in second halves to get over the hump in conference play.

North Carolina State has outscored just two of its last six opponents in the final 20 minutes of action, allowing an average of more than 42 points per second half in that span. The Wolfpack have countered with just 39 points per 2H in those games.

On the season, the Dukies have been a little slow out of the blocks, averaging just over 37 points in the first 20 minutes before picking up the pace with 43 ppg after halftime.

Game models for this ACC contest have the Blue Devils winning by as many as seven points and I believe the game situation and team tendencies lead to an even bigger win for Duke tonight.

As of Monday morning, the market has ticked up as high as Blue Devils -6.5, so shop around for the shortest spread and best vig.

My best bet: Duke -6 (-110 at Caesars)

Duke vs NC State same-game parlay

Duke -6

D.J. Horne Over 2.5 made threes

Kyle Filipowski Over 8.5 rebounds

The Blue Devils have the depth and rest advantage to take down a worn-out NC State squad.

D.J. Horne has been hot from the outside and will take plenty of looks from deep as NC State struggles to keep pace.

Kyle Filipowski is fresh and healthy after playing dinged-up last week. He had 14 boards as a freshman the last time he faced NC State. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Duke vs NC State spread and Over/Under analysis

Oddsmakers opened Duke as big as a 6-point road favorite while some books went a tick lower at -5.5 for the visitor. According to Covers Consensus, 61% of early picks are backing the Blue Devils on the road.

And why not? Duke cruised past its last two opponents, thumping Louisville and Virginia at home last week, covering sizable spreads in the process. 

The Blue Devils are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games overall. Duke is expected to be without standout freshman Caleb Foster (foot) yet again after he missed the previous two contests.

North Carolina State’s hot start against UNC helped it stay within the 11-point spread on Saturday. The Wolfpack have played in plenty of close games but haven’t been able to get over the hump with a 2-5 SU record and a 4-3 ATS mark in their last seven outings.

As for the Over/Under total, it hit the board between 148 and 150 points and still sits in that range as of Monday morning. According to Covers Consensus, there’s a slight 52% lean to the Under with early picks on the total.

Duke enters at 12-17 Over/Under, having topped the total only once in its last eight games. The Blue Devils are 4-6 O/U in true road games this season. 

As for the Wolfpack, they’re one of the better Over plays in the ACC at 17-11 O/U overall, including a 9-6-1 O/U count at home. North Carolina State’s loss to UNC this weekend played Under the total and snapped a five-game Over run for NC State total bettors.

Duke vs NC State betting trend to know

Duke has covered the spread in 22 of its last 35 games (+8.80 Units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. NC State.

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Duke vs NC State game info

Location: PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC
Date: Monday, March 4, 2024
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

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