Dayton vs VCU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Flyers Keep Rams Grounded

The Dayton Flyers will look to add a quality win to their NCAA Tournament resume and stay atop the Atlantic 10 standings when they visit the Virginia Commonwealth University Rams on Friday night.

Dayton (19-3) has won 16 of its last 17 games, and most pundits now have the Flyers solidly in the March Madness field. However, the college basketball odds have them as only slight favorites over VCU (15-8), which has won seven of its last eight.

The Flyers have one of the most efficient offenses in the country and have proven to be hard to beat home or away this season. We’ll see if the Rams can overcome that challenge in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Dayton vs. VCU on Friday, February 9.

Dayton vs VCU best odds

Dayton vs VCU picks and predictions

If Dayton has slipped under your radar this college basketball season, it’s time to start paying attention. Even if things go wrong for the Flyers down the stretch, they should solidly be a tournament team in March. ESPN’s Bracketology has Dayton as a No. 4 seed this week. 

How have the Flyers done it? They’re capable of just about anything on the court, but it’s their 3-point shooting that has set them apart from the pack. Dayton is shooting an incredible 40% from beyond the arc, good for fifth in the country. The Flyers hit 9.5 threes per game, a number that adds up to a whole lot of points every night that opponents have to make up for somewhere.

Pretty much everyone that Dayton plays for significant minutes — and that amounts to just six players, something that could be a weakness come tournament time — can shoot the ball from deep. The offense is led by junior forward Daron Holmes II (19.7 points per game), who provides some much-needed size while still contributing to the Flyers’ ability to spread the floor.

VCU would likely need to win the Atlantic 10 tournament to make the March Madness field this season, but the Rams have still enjoyed a strong first year under new coach Ryan Odom. After a slow start in conference play, VCU has won seven of eight against league opponents, enough for oddsmakers to see it as a real threat to Dayton tonight.

The Rams do offer an interesting matchup for the Flyers. They have clamped down on opposing shooters, allowing just 28.9% shooting from 3-point range on the year and 39.6% shooting overall, both of which rank in the Top 20 nationally. VCU hasn’t played the nonconference schedule that Dayton has, but it has played well against the same Atlantic 10 opponents as the Flyers. 

It’s hard to imagine VCU shutting down a team that can shoot from every position, even if they are able to limit Dayton’s productivity. That means the Rams are going to have to find ways to score to beat the Flyers, and that’s where I see a second problem tonight.

VCU does have four players averaging double figures on the year, led by guard Max Shulga (15.1 ppg). But the Rams aren’t particularly efficient, shooting just 44.8% from the field this year, and they average only 72.4 points per game. Dayton may be known for its offense, but they hold opponents to an solid average of 65 points.

These teams both play at a tepid pace, meaning possessions will be at a premium tonight. In that case, efficiency means a lot to me. On both ends of the court, Dayton is a more efficient, more talented team that should have the best of this matchup. I’m taking the Flyers to win on the road tonight.

My best bet: Dayton -1.5 (-102 at FanDuel)

Dayton vs VCU same-game parlay

Dayton -1.5

Under 135.5

Daron Holmes Under 19.5 points

+507 at FanDuel

I like Dayton to win and cover, but I think two slow-paced teams who both play strong defense are poised to keep the scoring under control tonight. That’s why I’m adding a bet on the Under to my same-game parlay. VCU has hit the Under in four straight games, and that streak should continue tonight.

I’m also going to take Holmes to go Under his scoring prop of 19.5 points tonight. Holmes should continue to be an efficient scorer for the Flyers in this game, but with possessions limited, I don’t think he’ll reach his season average of 19.7 ppg. He has scored 13 points or less in two of his last four games, and this is a spot where he’ll likely struggle to get to 20+ points.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Dayton vs VCU spread and Over/Under analysis

Dayton opened tonight’s game as a 2.5-point favorite. The consensus spread is now Dayton -1.5, though some books have gone down to a flat 1-point line. You can find -110 on both sides at either number, though I was able to find -102 on the Flyers -1.5 for my best bet.

Both teams have done well against the spread this year. Dayton has put up a 13-9 ATS record, while VCU is a nearly identical 13-9-1 ATS on the season.

While I can understand while VCU is being valued well in this game given their recent play, I can’t see the Rams winning this matchup. The Flyers have too much shooting talent on the court, which should overwhelm a normally stout VCU perimeter defense. I’m taking Dayton and laying the points.

The total on this game opened at just 134 points. That number has come up a bit, with the consensus Over/Under now sitting at 135.5. Interestingly, various sites are juicing this line in either direction: you can find -106 on the Under or -105 on the Over, depending on your preference.

Neither team has a strong tilt against the total this year. The Over has gone 12-10 in Dayton’s games, while the Under holds a 13-10 edge when VCU has played this season.

The Rams have played below this total as of late, including doing so in each of their last four games. While Dayton also likes to play slowly, their efficiency has sometimes allowed them to play in high-scoring contests, like their 94-79 win over the St. Joseph’s Hawks on Tuesday. Still, the Flyers have hit the Under in six of their last 10 games, and with two teams that like to sit in their half-court offenses playing each other, I’m leaning towards the Under again tonight.

Dayton vs VCU betting trend to know

Dayton is 6-1 ATS in true away games this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Dayton vs. VCU.

Dayton vs VCU game info

Dayton vs VCU key injuries

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