Creighton vs Villanova Odds, Picks and Predictions: Crazy About the Cats

Two Big East foes will wrap up their regular season when No. 10 Creighton travels to face off against Villanova.

The Wildcats have figured some things out at the end of the season. Yes, Villanova comes into this one off a loss to Seton Hall, but it's played better. Before that game, it had won three of its last four, which is likely why the BarTorvik rankings that included data from the New Year had the Cats' one spot out of the Top 25.

Creighton has had a good to even great season, but it's one that's been mirrored by inconsistent play. You've seen the best from the Jays lately. They've rattled off two straight wins, which included one last Saturday over No. 5 Marquette. You've also seen the rough patches, like when it went on the road two weeks ago and was thoroughly beaten by St John's.

Which one of those teams will we get today, and what's the best bet in this one? Find out when we look at the college basketball odds and give out our college basketball picks and predictions for Creighton vs. Villanova on Saturday, March 9.

Creighton vs Villanova best odds

Creighton vs Villanova picks and predictions

Does Villanova want to make the NCAA Tournament? A win today could go a long way toward that happening. For now, most projections have the Wildcats on the right side of the bubble, but that can change instantly. Head coach Kyle Neptune would like to avoid taking anything to chance.

"Our approach is that this is our Super Bowl," Neptune said. "We're going to come out and play as hard as we possibly can, and we're going to lay it all out on the line."

This game will determine so much for Villanova, and with its back against the wall, I'm backing them to come out on time. My best bet is the Villanova moneyline at -105.

Creighton and Villanova met in December when the Wildcats got one of their best wins of the season in overtime over the Jays in Omaha. In that game, neither team played its best. 

The best 3-point shooters for the Jays combined for 2 of 17 from deep, with Baylor Scheierman leading the shooting struggles going 0-for-7 from beyond the arc. Villanova also had a rough night on the field but was overshadowed by an otherworldly performance from Eric Dixon, who dropped 32 points.

Neither of those teams will likely repeat a performance like that today. However, it is notable that in that contest, Villanova managed to do something that its opponent has not done since 2021 in this series, and that's win on the road.

I projected the Wildcats as a 2-point favorite here, and a big reason is what Villanova can do on the backboard. Both teams have been excellent on the glass this season, so it may be surprising to see that as an advantage for either side. However, there still is one.

The Wildcats have been beyond incredible at home. They've posted a defensive rebounding percentage of over 80% in home games this season, placing it in the Top 10 of college basketball. Second-chance points could prove decisive in a game that features two defenses that are in the Top 30 of efficiency. That's why this advantage is so significant.

Away from that, I like the Villanova offense in certain places in the halfcourt. Creighton has struggled offensively to contain pick-and-roll drivers. It's allowed .881 points per set during the season, which places it second-to-last in the Big East. This area has improved for Villanova, with Mark Armstrong being a practical option in such sets. I like Villanova's ability to generate consistent offense through this, which is more than you can say about its opponent. 

Give me the Wildcats here. They've already proven once this season that it can beat this team when the situation isn't in its favor. Now, things are pointing all in its favor. Villanova is at home and desperate for a win to solidify its place in the NCAA Tournament. Along with that, it has a clear offensive advantage.

I'll take my chances here with those factors in a game that oddsmakers see as a virtual coin-flip. 

My best bet: Villanova moneyline (-105 at bet365)

Creighton vs Villanova same-game parlay

Villanova moneyline

Mark Armstrong Over 8.5 points

+232 at DraftKings

We're paring our moneyline best bet with a player who has been a critical indicator of Villanova's success this season as a team. With that, it's a highly correlated play, but it also maintains some relatively good value.

Villanova is 7-2 in games this season where Armstrong has reached double-digits, and we think he has a good chance of doing that today. Those above pick-and-roll defensive struggles for Creighton are a big part of this, but they are also what Armstrong has done in home games this season. He thrives off the environment and has averaged 1.5 more points at home this season than on the road. He should do it again today with such a good matchup.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Creighton vs Villanova spread and Over/Under analysis

Villanova moneyline today is our best bet. We fully expect the Wildcats to get the job done.

The motivation factor looms large here as there is simply much more on the line for the Wildcats than for Creighton, who stands to gain very little with a win. That said, that approach is useless if a solid handicap doesn't aid it.

The spread in this one has seen some minimum movement with no clear decisiveness from bettors on any side. That said, it was curious to see this game bet down to a pick 'em at DraftKings early on before being immediately steamed back up to the current 1.5-point line. 

I have no opinion on the total, as it came directly in line with my projected number.

This is a fairly ugly game sometimes, but there is also an emphasis on both teams playing with pace. With that in mind, it's hard to discern whether there's much of an edge here. The last matchup between these two going Under had broken a trend of points as the previous two matchups had gone Over. It aligns with what Villanova has seen for most of the season. The Cats' are now on a streak of six straight games that have gone Under. 

Creighton vs Villanova betting trend to know

Villanova has covered the spread in six of their last seven games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Creighton vs. Villanova.

Creighton vs Villanova game info

Creighton vs Villanova key injuries

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