The No. 6 Stanford Cardinal clash with the No. 11 California Golden Bears in the opening round of the Pac-12 Tournament at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Wednesday night.
The last we saw Stanford, it was getting run out the gym in a 79-42 road loss to Southern Cal on March 3, extending the program’s losing skid to four games (1-3 ATS). Cal enters the Pac-12 postseason on a four-game slide of its own (0-4 ATS). Mundane matchups like this make us thankful for college basketball betting.
Check out our NCAA basketball betting free picks and predictions for Cal vs. Stanford on March 10.
California vs Stanford odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThis line bounced around a bit since opening Stanford -6.5 Tuesday afternoon at FanDuel. The Cardinal initially moved to -7, then dipped to -6 Tuesday night, rose to -7.5 by midafternoon and then settled at -7. As of 7 p.m. ET, Stanford is drawing 80 percent of bets and 71 percent of money on the point spread. The total fell from 132.5 to 131.5, then ticked up to 132 this afternoon, and the Over is getting hit to the tune of 82 percent of bets/85 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameCalifornia Golden Bears vs Stanford Cardinal betting preview
Injuries
California: No injuries to report.
Stanford: Oscar Da Silva F (Questionable), Daejon Davis G (Questionable), Bryce Wills G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for California vs. Stanford.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Wear and tear plagued Stanford down the stretch, not only missing leading scorer Oscar Da Silva for three games—but also Daejon Davis and Bryce Wills for the finale versus USC.
Resting those latter two was a decision from head coach Jared Haase, who was heavy with his rotation against the Trojans and played 13 different players, eight of which got 17 minutes or more. Haase is hopeful his team will be at full strength and well-rested for Wednesday’s Pac-12 Tournament tipoff.
As bad as the Cardinal offense looked last week, the Golden Bears' scoring attack is even shakier. Cal has posted point totals of 63, 57, 51 and 51 during its four-game skid, shooting a collective 36.8 percent from the field in that span.
Cal did show some fight versus Oregon in the season finale, making 24 of 53 from the floor, but its methodical pace (ranked 322nd in tempo) just doesn’t allow the Golden Bears to play catchup if they get off to a cold start.
Stanford knocked off the Golden Bears twice in a home-and-home set in early February, splitting results against the spread. The Cardinal limited Cal to scores of 29 and 27 points in the first half of those games and will come out swinging in the opening 20 minutes Wednesday, behind fresh legs of those returning standouts.
A dash of revenge may also be in play for the Cardinal after Cal stunned Stanford in the opening round of the Pac-12 Tournament last March, right before COVID-19 canceled the event and all the sports in the entire world (save for shadowy Russian ping pong).
PREDICTION: Stanford -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Between Cal’s plodding pace on offense – averaging a mere 67 possessions per game (322nd) – and Stanford’s stingy defense, there’s a solid argument for the Under Wednesday night.
The Cardinal, who rank 37th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom.com, do a great job limiting open looks, allowing foes to shoot just over 41 percent from the field. Even during this four-game slide to end the regular season (which featured top teams USC and Oregon), opponents hit at 43 percent from the field and went a collective 37 for 109 from beyond the arc.
The Golden Bears are a far less fearsome offense to deal with and have played Under the number in six of their last 10 conference games. The status and activity for Stanford’s Da Silva, who Stanford head coach Jerod Haase said Tuesday remained day-to-day going into the tournament, could also play into the total result. I don’t believe the Cardinal need him to beat Cal straight up and if he is held back for the next round, it will show up on the scoreboard.
PREDICTION: Under 132.5 (-116)
California vs Stanford betting card
- Stanford -6.5 (-110)
- Under 132.5 (-116)
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