Caitlin Clark Odds & Best Bets: Iowa Superstar Battles Sky-High Props

Caitlin Clark's college career has been historic in every sense of the word, but Sunday's National Championship Game presents maybe her toughest challenge yet — one that may be too much for even her to overcome.

Apr 7, 2024 • 12:31 ET • 4 min read
Caitlin Clark Iowa Hawkeyes WNCAAB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Caitlin Clark’s legacy is already secure, but somehow, this afternoon could still be a legacy-defining opportunity for the Iowa Hawkeyes star. 

Can she direct Iowa to an upset of the unbeaten South Carolina Gamecocks? Can she bring Iowa its first national championship while also denying South Carolina its third title in the last seven years? These are the moments that make March Madness such a delight.

She's averaged 30 points and 9.4 assists in this tournament and the Caitlin Clark odds wonder if she might be in for an even bigger afternoon.

Let’s dig into the National Championship Game odds and offer some March Madness picks for Caitlin Clark on Sunday, April 7. For full-game analysis, check out our Iowa vs. South Carolina predictions.

Caitlin Clark player props vs South Carolina

Picks made on April 7 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Caitlin Clark props

Prop bet #1: Points barrage?

Not that South Carolina head coach Dawn Staley needs anyone to show her a template, but UConn did on Friday night. Despite playing with a miserably short rotation, the Huskies fought around screens all night to pester Clark. She rarely had open looks, not that she needs much of an opening.

The Huskies clearly decided someone else would need to beat them, and if not for a questionable whistle in the final seconds, that approach just may have worked, as they held Clark to 21 points on 7-for-18 shooting, including 3-for-11 from beyond the arc.

That was Clark’s lowest point total of the season and her worst 3-point shooting percentage in nearly a month.

One could reasonably argue she's too good to have two bad games in a row, but Friday night was hardly a bad game. The superstar played all 40 minutes and found her way to a win. At this point in the year, that qualifies as a good game, particularly when pairing 21 points with nine rebounds and seven assists.

More notably, someone else did beat UConn. Hawkeyes forward Hannah Stuelke poured in 23 points on 9-for-12 shooting. As impressive as that was — and repeatable given she's scored 23+ points three times since March 3 — Stuelke will have a tougher 1-on-1 matchup against South Carolina, led by Kamila Cardoso on the inside.

South Carolina can mirror UConn’s defensive approach with more confidence in Cardoso on the inside, as well as in its overall rotation, which runs nine deep. The Huskies barely had six players. The Gamecocks can run itself ragged focused on Clark while having more trust no one else will beat them.

Scoring prop: Under 32.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Assisting to who?

South Carolina has the No. 1 defense in the country in terms of opponent points per 100 possessions, opposing field goal percentage, opposing effective field goal percentage, and opponent points per play.

This defense shuts down interior success — opponents have shot 34.6% inside the arc against the Gamecocks — while also giving up few looks from deep, ranking No. 191 in the latter category.

If Clark is going to find teammates for buckets, they would usually be on the inside, partly because she draws so much attention on the perimeter. Look at the Friday semifinal, when the other Hawkeyes went 16-for-27 on the inside but just 4-for-14 from deep.

South Carolina does not give up inside scoring. This does not need to be more complicated than that, and without inside scoring, Clark is not going to rack up assists.

Assist prop: Under 9.5 assists (+100 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Desperation threes not enough

The first instinct here was to suggest taking the Over 5.5 made threes, available at -106 at FanDuel. The logic is that as Iowa falls behind, Clark should chuck from deep. And as 6.5-point underdogs in the Women's March Madness odds, the Hawkeyes should logically fall behind.

However, upon further consideration, I'm leaning the other way because as Iowa falls behind, South Carolina will know to key on Clark even more.

Dawn Staley could direct her defense to pick Clark up at the opposite end’s free-throw line. She has the depth to exhaust Clark with that pressure.

Made threes prop: Under 5.5 made threes (+105 at DraftKings)

Not intended for use in MA.
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