The Michigan Wolverines face a daunting task when they take on the Texas Longhorns at Dickies Arena in Elite Eight Women’s March Madness action.
The Wolverines will need to score big to win, and my Michigan vs. Texas predictions expect plenty of points.
Read on for my Women’s March Madness betting picks for Monday, March 30.
Michigan vs Texas prediction
Who will win Michigan vs Texas?
Texas: The Texas Longhorns' constant defensive pressure and rebounding edge will be too much for the Michigan Wolverines to overcome. Michigan can be turnover-prone, and that will cost them against one of the most opportunistic defenses in the country.
Michigan vs Texas best bet: Over 138.5 (-115 at bet365)
This game should play faster than the number suggests. Both teams push tempo, but the Texas Longhorns create extra possessions with pressure.
That pressure has resulted in 26 points per game from turnovers, and that turmoil will create the pace needed for the Over.
The Michigan Wolverines average 17.7 dimes per game, and Olivia Olson can create her own shot when things break down. Even if Texas does take control of the game, Michigan has multiple avenues to score.
We’re not asking for perfection, just their normal pace and a few turnovers turning into points.
COVERS INTEL: Texas forces 22.4 turnovers per game for a +10.4 turnover differential per game in 2025-2026.
Michigan vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 138.5
Texas team total Over 73.5
Texas first quarter -2.5
Texas should set the tone early with defensive pressure, which is why the first-quarter spread stands out.
Michigan can be loose with the ball, and Texas converts turnovers into quick points.
They pressure throughout the game, so the same edge carries into the full game, where extra possessions help Texas reach the mid-70s.
Michigan vs Texas odds
- Spread: Michigan +9.5 (-115) | Texas -9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan +320 | Texas -450
- Over/Under: Over 138.5 (-115) | Under 138.5 (-110)
How to watch Michigan vs Texas
| Location | Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX |
| Date | Monday, March 30, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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