Arkansas vs South Carolina Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Battle Tests Gamecocks in Nashville

The No. 12 seed Arkansas Razorbacks take on the No. 5 seed South Carolina Gamecocks in the second round of the SEC Tournament bracket on Thursday afternoon. While the South Carolina women's team is the odds-on favorite in the March Madness odds, don't sleep on the men's squad which is just one victory away from tying the program record with 26 wins in a season.

Conference Tournament odds have the Gamecocks installed as 5.5-point favorites with the Over/Under at 143.5 for this clash at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Arkansas vs. South Carolina on March 14.

Arkansas vs South Carolina best odds

Arkansas vs South Carolina picks and predictions

It's been a rough season for the Arkansas Razorbacks, who needed overtime to beat Vanderbilt as 6.5-point favorites last night. The Razorbacks finished with a 6-12 conference record during the regular season and when they previously faced the South Carolina Gamecocks on January 20, they were crushed 77-64 at home. That said, I do think we'll see a closer contest this time around. 

Keep in mind that Arkansas guard Khalif Battle played just five minutes in that contest but he's become the Razorbacks best player over the last month. Battle appeared to be in head coach Eric Musselman's dog house at the start of conference play, averaging just 15 minutes and 4.6 points per game through the first 10 contests. He's been red-hot since, averaging 27.5 ppg on 47/31/91 shooting splits in 37 mpg over the last eight games. 

It's no surprise that Arkansas went 2-8 in those first 10 conference games before going 4-4 straight up and 6-2 against the spread in their last eight. 

It's also worth noting that the Razorbacks season-long stats are skewed by missing another of their top players in Trevon Brazile for a month, and then seeing him on a minutes restriction when he first returned to the lineup in February. The forward is back to getting regular playing time, dropping 12 points in 30 minutes against Alabama in the regular-season finale before scoring 13 points and grabbing 12 boards in 42 minutes last night.

The Gamecocks are having a terrific season, going 25-6 SU and 22-9 ATS. However, they play at one of the slowest tempos in the country and their lack of scoring punch means that winning with margin isn't easy. This is a Gamecocks squad that is last in the SEC in free-throw rate while ranking eighth in conference play in eFG% (50.3%) and ninth in turnover rate (16.3%).

They are also heavily-reliant on 3-pointers, ranking 54th in the country in 3-point rate (42.2%) but convert those shots at a modest 33.2% clip against SEC foes. They shot a sizzling 50% from downtown in that first meeting but regression seems likely here.

Keep in mind that the Gamecocks' sterling ATS mark is due in part to oddsmakers underestimating them, and they are a middling 3-3 ATS as a favorite in conference play. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have covered the spread in each of their last four games as an underdog. Take Arkansas with the points here.

My best bet: Arkansas +5.5 (-110 at bet365)

Arkansas vs South Carolina same-game parlay

Arkansas +5.5

Over 143.5

Meechie Johnson Over 2.5 assists

+425 at bet365

The Gamecocks have a stout defense and they play at a snail's pace. However, oddsmakers seem to be overcompensating for that slow tempo and with low totals in their games, the Over has gone 9-7 in their last 16. Meanwhile, the fast-paced and defensively-inept Razorbacks have been an Over machine, going 11-1 O/U in their last 12 contests.

Gamecocks guard Meechie Johnson struggled in that first meeting, finishing with just eight points and a pair of assists. However, he has dropped 3+ assists in 11 of his last 13 games. He seems likely to eclipse that number against an Arkansas squad that surrenders 81.9 ppg to conference opponents.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arkansas vs South Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened with the Gameocks installed as 6.5-point favorites with the O/U at 143. Money has come in on the Razorbacks, slimming this line to -5.5 while the total has ticked up half a point to 143.5.

While the Gamecocks had to settle for the fifth seed in this tourney, they were in a four-way tie at second place in the conference standings with a 13-5 record. They've been one of the best ATS teams in the country, going 22-9 ATS, and they wrapped up their regular season by going 4-1 SU and ATS in their final five games. While they are at No. 15 in the latest AP Top 25 poll, they are 47th in the KenPom ratings.

It's been a disappointing season for the Razorbacks, who are in the midst of their worst year under Eric Musselman. That said, they have played better down the stretch, going 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.

This is a relatively low total for an Arkansas game and that's due to South Carolina ranking 354th in the country in adjusted tempo. The Gamecocks have shown the ability to slow down up-tempo attacks like Alabama and Kentucky, and oddsmakers expect them to do the same against Arkansas.

Arkansas vs South Carolina betting trend to know

The Razorbacks are 6-2 ATS in their eight games overall while going 4-0 ATS in their last four contests as an underdog. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. South Carolina.

Arkansas vs South Carolina game info

Arkansas vs South Carolina key injuries

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