Arkansas vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wildcats Sharper than Razorbacks

Kentucky's been trending in the right direction, with scoring depth emerging behind Oscar Tshiebwe. See why our college basketball picks are backing the Wildcats to keep pouncing in the SEC matchup with Arkansas.

Last Updated: Feb 6, 2023 3:11 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Oscar Tshiebwe Kentucky
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The Arkansas Razorbacks and Kentucky Wildcats square off in a big SEC matchup on Tuesday night. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Arkansas has turned things around lately, getting back on track after a little bit of a nosedive in SEC play. It has rattled off four straight conference wins after a 1-5 start.

Kentucky finds itself 7-3 in the conference, just one game back of Tennessee and Texas A&M for second place, while three full games back of Alabama.

Will the Razorbacks be able to continue their ascension in the SEC, or will the Wildcats smack them back down under .500 while bolstering their resume? We’ll discuss in our college basketball picks and predictions for Arkansas vs. Kentucky on Tuesday, February 7.

Arkansas vs Kentucky best odds

Arkansas vs Kentucky picks and predictions

The Razorbacks have used a combination of timely offense and solid defense lately to rack up wins in four of the past five games overall, including each of the past four SEC matchups.

It ground out a 65-63 win at South Carolina last time out on Saturday, shooting a rather efficient 47% (26-for-55) from the field, while turning it over just 11 times. It’s fairly impressive to grab the road win since the Hogs were outrebounded by a 33-to-31 count.

Arkansas continues to make the best of things despite the fact Nick Smith Jr. remains sidelined indefinitely due to a knee injury. He’s second on the team with 12.8 PPG, and his leadership and 3-point shooting has been truly missed.

Kentucky has posted six wins in the past seven outings, including six straight victories in conference play. The only loss during the span was January 28 at home against Kansas. That’s the team’s only non-cover during the seven-game stretch, too.

The Wildcats have been able to adapt lately even when its best lineups aren’t hitting on all cylinders, and that’s very important. 

Jacob Toppin scored 17 points with 10 rebounds, while Cason Wallace was good for 20 points against Florida last time out, picking up the slack with Oscar Tshiebwe hitting just 2-of-14 from the field. He ended up with just four points, and UK won. Last year, that wasn’t happening, as secondary and tertiary scoring just wasn’t there behind Tshiebwe.

Kentucky is hitting on all cylinders lately, and is headed back toward the Top 25 rankings. It will get the win here, and frankly, it’s surprising the line isn’t a little higher.

My best bet: Kentucky -5 (-110 at BetRivers)

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Arkansas vs Kentucky spread analysis

The Razorbacks have cashed in four of the past five games overall, but Arkansas has managed to cover just once in the past six games on the road.

Arkansas has had a hard time stringing covers together, too, going 1-5 ATS in the past six games following a non-cover, too.

Kentucky is having no such issues, covering in six of the past seven games overall. It’s also 5-1 ATS in the past six games against teams with an overall winning record, too.

UK has been stacking covers, too, going 4-1 ATS in the past five games following a cover, and 4-1 ATS in the past five games after a straight-up win, too.

Kentucky has an ax to grind after losing the past two meetings with Arkansas, too. This used to be a series owned by the Wildcats, as it won eight in a row from February 28, 2015 to January 18, 2020, while covering seven of those games. Arkansas has won two in a row, going 1-0-1 ATS during the span.

Look for the red-hot Wildcats to get back on track, restoring order in this series.

Arkansas vs Kentucky Over/Under analysis

The Razorbacks have been a little erratic on offense lately, cashing the Over in two of the previous four games on the road.

Arkansas struggled with its shot at South Carolina last time out, but in back-to-back games from January 14-18 at Vanderbilt and Missouri, the Razorbacks averaging 80.0 PPG. It’s hard to know which Razorbacks team is going to show up sometimes.

The Hogs are averaging 74.4 PPG, and they’re a great shooting team at 47.4% from the field. But Arkansas is also an awful 3-point shooting team, hitting just 30.6% from behind the arc. So, if Arkansas isn’t hitting inside the paint, things can go off the rails rather quickly. 

Arkansas leaves a lot of points on the floor, too, hitting just 69.7% from the free-throw line, which is maddening to Over bettors. Defensively though, the Hogs are pretty strong, allowing just 65.2 PPG.

Lately, Arkansas has been trending to the Over, however, and the Over is 3-0 in the past three in this series, too.

For Kentucky, it’s all about the Over lately. The Cats are averaging 75.2 PPG to rank just inside the Top 100 overall, and it’s a solid 3-point shooting team at 36.8%.

The Over is a perfect 8-0 in the past eight games at home for the Wildcats, while going 5-1 in the past six games overall. The Over is 4-1 in the past five games against winning teams, too. You have to keep pounding Overs for Kentucky until it starts to cool off a bit. Going high with UK laying the points makes for a very nice parlay opportunity, too.

Arkansas vs Kentucky betting trend to know

The Wildcats are 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series, with the Over cashing in each of the previous three meetings overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Kentucky.

Arkansas vs Kentucky game info

Location: Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY
Date: Tuesday, February 7, 2023
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

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