Warriors vs Thunder Picks and Predictions: No Stopping Steph in OKC

No matter what version of the Golden State Warriors we'll see at Paycom Center tonight, one thing is for certain: Steph Curry will show up. Our NBA betting picks are going Over his points total for this Western Conference clash.

Last Updated: Jan 30, 2023 11:47 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
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Ahead of schedule and playing with house money, the Oklahoma City Thunder have their sights set on crashing the postseason party this season – and they can make another big statement tonight against the Golden State Warriors.

Powered by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey, the Thunder are 9-4 in January and at 24-25, are just outside the play-in spots and only a game behind the Warriors. SGA was at it again on Friday night, scoring 35 points in a 112-100 win over the Cavaliers.

The Warriors loom large as a mid-to-low playoff seed, but the defending champs continue to be tripped up by wretched road form. They arrive in OKC after back-to-back home wins but are just 6-18 away from Chase Center.

Get the lowdown on tonight’s matchup with our free Warriors vs Thunder NBA picks and predictions.

Warriors vs Thunder best odds

Warriors vs Thunder picks and predictions

It’s tough to trust the Golden State Warriors on the road this year after some inexplicable losses – and their road record continues to be baffling given the talent and experience on this roster, but I’m still riding with an in-form Steph Curry in this matchup.

With his shoulder injury (and the predictable rust after returning to the line-up) well behind him, Curry’s been in a groove over the past few weeks, including a 35-point clinic on 13 of 21 shooting against the Raptors on Friday night. He looks like himself again, and bettors can act accordingly.

In line with that, the Curry total points prop line feels a bit light after some of his recent performances. It’s not like the Finals MVP has been struggling on the road either – he poured in 41 points in Washington two weeks ago and added a 29-point night in Boston in his last road appearance. 

Curry has shot well from deep, even without the trademark barrage of 3-pointers (he’s hit more than four triples in two of his last seven games), and he got to the rim with ease against the Raptors. His minutes are back up into the high 30s and should stay there against the guard-heavy Oklahoma City Thunder.

His matchup against SGA and Giddey should bring out the best in Curry with its old school vs. new school vibe, and I expect him to put it on his shoulders to lead the Warriors out of their road funk.

My best bet: Steph Curry Over 27.5 points (-115)

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Warriors vs Thunder spread analysis

Golden State’s championship pedigree and star power seem to outweigh its road record here, with the Warriors entering as 3.5-point favorites at Paycom Center.

However, you could make the case that the Thunder are undervalued as an underdog – they’re at home (where they’re 15-10 this season) and Golden State has given betters little reason to trust its ability to take care of business on the road. The hosts’ moneyline odds are worth a long look.

Steve Kerr’s men are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games after a SU win by more than 10 points. By contrast, the Thunder are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record, and they have an impressive 31-17-1 ATS record this season.

This is an OKC team that’s taken some big scalps already this month, including wins over the Celtics, Nuggets, 76ers, and Mavericks. They play hard every possession and SGA has morphed into a fearless bucket-getter.

While the Warriors have won the past six meetings, this is a fearless OKC team emerging in style after a few tough years.

Warriors vs Thunder Over/Under analysis

With SGA, Curry, and Klay Thompson on the court together, the Over is rarely out of reach. As noted above, Curry is rolling again, and Andrew Wiggins’ expected return gives the visitors’ roster more balance.

However, the numbers suggest the Under shouldn’t be ignored. It’s hit in the Thunder’s last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, plus it’s 4-1 in the Warriors’ last five games against teams with a losing record (though admittedly OKC is barely under .500). 

This is the teams’ first meeting of the season so there’s no recent matchup data to draw on, but keep in mind that Curry and Thompson won’t have to worry about the injured Lu Dort, a key perimeter defender for OKC.

Warriors vs Thunder betting trend to know

The Thunder have been getting it done at Paycome Center over the past few months – and they’re 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a road winning percentage lower than .400. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Thunder.

Warriors vs Thunder game info

Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Date: Monday, January 30, 2023
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Southwest, NBC Sports Bay Area

Warriors vs Thunder key injuries

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