Warriors vs Thunder Picks and Predictions: Warriors Breeze Through Oklahoma City

After some offensive struggles, Steph Curry and the Warriors have seemingly gotten their grove back. They're entering OKC tonight on an eight-game win streak and should have no problems making it nine against the NBA's worst offense.

Last Updated: Feb 7, 2022 2:17 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Klay Thompson Golden State Warriors NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are looking more and more like the vintage Warriors, while the Thunder are looking more and more like the worst team in the league. Klay Thompson and Steph Curry should prove to be far too much for Oklahoma City without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Warriors at the Thunder on February 7, with tip set for 8:00 p.m. ET.

Warriors vs Thunder odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Warriors opened as 10-point favorites on Sunday night, a number that jumped to -11.5 within an hour and eventually ticked up to -12.5 by Monday’s sunrise. The total moved in the opposite direction, opening at 213 and feinting upward to 213.5 before falling to 212 early Monday morning and then cascading down to 210 by lunchtime.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Warriors vs Thunder predictions

Predictions made on 2/7/2022 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Warriors vs Thunder game info

Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Date: Monday, February 7, 2022
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Oklahoma, NBCS-Bay Area

Warriors vs Thunder betting preview

Key injuries

Warriors: Andre Iguodala SG (Out), James Wiseman C (Out), Nemanja Bjelica PF (Out), Draymond Green PF (Out), Otto Porter Jr. SF (Questionable).
Thunder: Lu Dort SG (Questionable), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG (Out), Mike Muscala PF (Out), Vit Krejci PG (Out),  Jeremiah Robinson-Earl SF (Out), Aaron Wiggins SG (Out).

Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-3-1 in the Thunder's last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Thunder.

Warriors vs Thunder picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Golden State is finding its offense. In their last six games, the Warriors have averaged 122.7 points, and to be clear, none of those games went to overtime to boost that average. Golden State is simply remembering how nice it is to not only have Steph Curry, but also Klay Thompson.

In that stretch, Curry has not even been the primary catalyst. He played in only five of the games, averaging 25.2 points per game. Curry has seemingly broken free of his January shooting slump, though, making 43.1% of his attempts from deep in those six games, including going 7-of-14 in a 40-point outburst at Houston last week.

And Thompson has not exactly exploded, either, averaging 18.2 points per game in his five appearances during this six-game stretch. Thompson has shot exactly 50% from the field during this Warriors offensive resurgence, along with 46.2% from deep.

That has been the key for Golden State, rediscovering the efficiency that is innate to having the Splash Brothers on the court, even when Curry and Thompson are not sending the crowd into a frenzy. In the last six games, the Warriors are nearly a 50-40-90 TEAM, falling short only at the free-throw line, where an 83.3 rate is hardly something to scoff at.

Andrew Wiggins is shooting better than 52% from the field, and Jonathan Kuminga makes that look pedestrian by hitting 57.1% of his shots, while Damion Lee is hitting 40.9% of his 3s. Compare those numbers to their season-long marks of 48.6, 49.3 and 37.5, respectively.

As long as all of the Warriors are playing this efficiently, Oklahoma City simply will not be able to keep up.

Prediction: Warriors -12.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Yet the key to Golden State’s No. 2 standing in the West has not been its offense, but its defense. The Warriors have the No. 1 defensive rating in the league this season, as far from No. 2 as No. 2 (the Suns) is from No. 5.

That defense is now facing an offense that has averaged 98.75 points per game in its last eight non-overtime games. It seems safe to assume the Thunder will not reach that mark against such a strong defense, at which point any chance of hitting the Over depends on Golden State exploding once again.

The Warriors may cover tonight, but they are unlikely to do enough to push this Over all on their own.

Prediction: Under 210.5 (-110)

Best bet

That 98.75 points per game in its last eight non-overtime games for the Thunder sticks out. This has been the worst offense in the league all year, though special mention should go to the Magic for having a worse offensive rating in the last 30 days. Yet, somehow, Oklahoma City still averaged fewer points.

Most of those games came with the luxury of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the court. Of those eight non-overtime games that knocked the Thunder down to fewer than 99 points per game lately, Gilgeous-Alexander played in five of them. And still, Oklahoma City floundered.

This offense is measurably worse without Gilgeous-Alexander. In 43 games with him this season, the Thunder has had an offensive rating of 103.7. In nine games without him, that falls to 103.1. The raw scoring numbers are more drastic, averaging 101.6 points per game with the young point guard and 98.2 points without him.

Oklahoma City simply has little consistent offense in good times, and when Gilgeous-Alexander is out, that little becomes none. Facing the league’s best defense without your best player is never a recipe for a strong offensive showing.

Pick: Thunder team total Under 98.5 (-108)

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