Knicks vs Jazz Picks and Predictions: Randle, Knicks Capitalize on Gobert's Absence

With no Rudy Gobert once again, the Utah Jazz could struggle to put up enough points to cover the 8-point spread against the visiting New York Knicks. This will be music to Julius Randle's ears, who we think will be a key contributor in our betting picks.

Last Updated: Feb 7, 2022 3:42 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Julius Randle New York Knicks NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The wheels are falling off quickly for the New York Knicks, who have lost eight of the last ten. Tonight's matchup is against a team you could have said the very same for just a few days ago, but the Utah Jazz have seemingly stopped the bleeding.

The Jazz's struggles have been a product of injuries while the Knicks' issues largely stem from an unearthly decline of forward Julius Randle. Can Randle and the Knicks reverse their struggles and put a good foot forward towards making it back to the playoffs, or will the Jazz continue to overcome the injury bug and put together a third-straight win?

Continue reading for our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Knicks vs. Jazz on Monday, February 7th for more.

Knicks vs Jazz odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Jazz opened as 7.5-point favorites and have since moved a touch up to -8. The total opened at 216.5 and has moved as high as 220.5, but has since come down to 218 at the time of this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Knicks vs Jazz predictions

Predictions made on 2/7/2022 at 3:13 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Knicks vs Jazz game info

Location: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
Date: Monday, February 7, 2022
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: SportsNet Rocky Mountain, MSG

Knicks vs Jazz betting preview

Key injuries

Knicks: Derrick Rose G (Out).
Jazz: Rudy Gobert C (Out), Joe Ingles F (Out), Jordan Clarkson G (Questionable), Rudy Gay F (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Jazz are 9-18 against the spread this season as home favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Jazz.

Knicks vs Jazz picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Jazz have been seriously hit by the injury bug and the lack of consistency in their rotation has given Utah a lot of trouble. During the recent 13-game stretch in which they won just two games, they used seven different starting lineups. Stars Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert played just five games apiece during that run and played only two together.

Although Mitchell made his return in the Jazz's last game (dropping a game-leading 27 points en route to a win), Gobert will miss his seventh straight game on Monday. Joining him are Joe Ingles and possibly Rudy Gay, who did not participate in shootaround. But last year's Sixth Man of the Year, Jordan Clarkson, was a full participant and is expected to play, and is obviously a huge addition back into the rotation as a scoring threat.

Utah, despite its struggles through January, still possesses the third-best net rating in the league (trailing just Golden State and Phoenix), which is largely anchored by their top-ranked offensive rating of 115.6. They achieve much of their scoring from deep, owning the largest percentage of points coming from the perimeter (39.4%). On top of the relentless volume, they make threes at a 36.4% clip, which ranks fourth-best in the league. They also get to the line reliably often, averaging 22.9 free throw attempts per game, which is the second-best mark in the association.

And while they may not be as good as the Jazz, the Knicks are similarly proficient at those elements of the game. They rank inside the Top 10 in 3-point attempts and makes, and shoot 22.2 free throws per game. They also rank seventh in offensive rebounding rate, which comes in direct conflict with Utah's eighth-ranked defensive rebounding rate. The obvious wrinkle, however, is that Rudy Gobert will not play tonight and his 15.1 rebounds per game will not play a factor.

His absence may also be a godsend for Julius Randle, who has struggled mightily following a campaign last season that netted him the Most Improved Player award and Second-Team All-NBA honors. And no matter how you chop up his splits, it's clear Randle's decline is one of the biggest we've ever seen from a player of that caliber. In fact, Randle has failed to lead the Knicks in scoring for 20 straight games now.

Julius Randle 2021-22 2020-21
PPG 18.7 24.1
FG% 41.6 45.6
3-point% 30.6 41.1
eFG% 46.6 51.6
AST/TO ratio 1.5 1.8

Not having to go against three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert should help Randle find more space to operate. He should also be happy to hear that he is facing a defense that forces the second-fewest turnovers in the league, considering he has had four or more turnovers in six of his last seven games. Between this plus matchup for Randle and the rest of the Knicks offense, the key absences for the Jazz, and the fact that Utah has been 9-18 against the spread this year as home favorites, there is enough room in this spread for the Knicks to play within a respectable margin.

Prediction: Knicks +8 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

While Utah may lead the league in scoring and offensive rating, the team has struggled extensively in its last 15 games amid battles with injuries. The Jazz managed to score just 107.7 points per game during that time, which would rank 22nd in the NBA on the season.

The Knicks bring in an offense that ranks 27th in scoring (104.4 ppg) and 24th in offensive rating. And Tom Thibodeau's reputation to overplay his main rotation players is very real, with the Knicks playing 48-35 (57.8%) to the Under on one day of rest since he took over as the head coach.

Prediction: Under 218 (-110)

Best bet

Monday's showdown between the Knicks and Jazz isn't one that promises to be pretty, but it is undoubtedly one with major implications given the struggles of each team and the apparent roster turmoil that may be plaguing each team. Reports of tension between Mitchell and Gobert have begun to surface again and rumors surrounding Randle as a trade candidate have also begun to pop up.

But given the context and structure of the matchup, the current spread of +8 for the Knicks is a little too much room for even a team playing as poorly as New York. Take the moderate amount of points in what should be a relatively low-scoring affair.

Pick: Knicks +8 (-110)

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