Warriors vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Chef Curry Fries Miami Defense

Steph Curry is red hot, scoring 30 or more points in six of seven games to start the season. With his scoring prop sitting at 26.5 vs. a team he scored 33 against just a week ago, we're all in on the Over. Read more in our NBA betting picks below.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Nov 1, 2022 • 11:08 ET • 4 min read
Steph Curry Golden State Warriors NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors are heading to the Sunshine State to face off against the Miami Heat on Tuesday night.

These championship contenders are both sitting under .500 and will look to get their season back on track. The Warriors cruised to a 123-110 victory when these teams met at Chase Center last week but have yet to win on the road this season.

Oddsmakers expect a close game with NBA odds opening with the Heat as slim 1-point home underdogs with the Over/Under at 227. Read our best free NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Heat below.

Warriors vs Heat best odds

Warriors vs Heat picks and predictions

The Warriors have been brutal defensively but can get buckets and point guard Stephen Curry is a big reason for that. The eight-time All-Star is averaging 31 points per game and has been very consistent.

He's scored 30 or more points in six of seven games this season, including a 33-point performance against the Miami Heat last Thursday. He has also taken at least 22 field goal attempts in six of seven games this season, so another high-volume shooting night seems likely. 

The Heat haven't been great on defense this season, especially on the perimeter where they allow opponents to shoot 39% from 3-point range.

Expect Curry to have another sharp-shooting night today and back the Over 26.5 on his points total. 

My best bet: Stephen Curry Over 26.5 points (-118)

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Warriors vs Heat spread analysis

Both of these teams entered this season with high expectations but have underachieved to this point. The Heat are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS and are coming off back-to-back losses after losing 119-113 to the Kings on Saturday following Thursday's defeat to the Golden State Warriors

The Heat were killed on the glass in that game against the Dubs — getting outrebounded 50-31 — while Golden State shot 50% from the floor and went 18-46 from beyond the arc. After that victory, the Warriors went on a road trip and lost consecutive games to the Hornets and Pistons. 

Their 128-114 loss in Detroit on Sunday dropped their record to 3-4 SU on the season and means that they've covered the spread just once in their last six games. 

These teams are neck-and-neck when it comes to net rating with the Heat 22nd in the league at -3.1 while the Warriors are 23rd at -3.9.

The Dubs are shooting the ball pretty well but are turning the ball over at the ninth-worst rate in the league while ranking just 23rd in rebounding rate. 

The Warriors have been awful on their own end of the floor and rank just 24th in the NBA in defensive rating (115.2). A massive dropoff from their rating of 108.9 last season when they ranked second in the league. 

The Heat have struggled on the glass, ranking just 27th in rebounding rate and their effective field goal percentage of 51.5% is 23rd in the league.

Warriors vs Heat Over/Under analysis

The Warriors are second in the league in pace and that combined with their poor defensive play has resulted in plenty of high-scoring contests. They are 6-0-1 to the Over this season and are leading the NBA with 118.7 ppg while surrendering a league-worst 122 ppg. 

Klay Thompson is shooting just 34.6% from the floor but Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole are both averaging over 17 ppg to give Curry some scoring support. 

The Heat play at a slower pace and haven't been as efficient when it comes to shooting but they've been clicking on offense lately. They've scored at least 110 points in three straight games and are averaging 114 ppg over that span. 

Point guard Kyle Lowry has struggled with his shot but Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro have been filling up the hoop. Meanwhile, big man Bam Adebayo is averaging 22.3 ppg on 62.5% shooting in his last three games after a slow start to the season.

Warriors vs Heat betting trend to know

The Over is 6-0-1 in the Warriors' last seven games overall while going 5-0 in the previous five meetings between these teams. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Heat.

Warriors vs Heat game info

Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
Date: Tuesday, November 1, 2022
Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBCS-California, Bally Sports Sun

Warriors vs Heat key injuries

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