Warriors vs 76ers Picks and Predictions: Golden State Can't be Faded

The Golden State Warriors look to keep running roughshod through the NBA schedule as they visit the Philadelphia 76ers Saturday night. 

The Sixers' early season has been consumed by the Ben Simmons holdout drama, but with trade season unofficially beginning next week, they can hopefully find a resolution soon. 

In the meantime, can Philly stop the Golden State freight train? Find out with our NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs 76ers on December 11.

Warriors vs 76ers odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The spread opened at Warriors -3.5 but has been bet down to -3 at some books as of Saturday morning. The total opened between 212.5 and 214.5, and is available anywhere between those numbers, so shop around! 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Warriors vs 76ers predictions

• Prediction: Golden State -3 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 212.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Golden State -3 (-110)

Predictions made on 12/11/2021 at 12:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Warriors vs 76ers game info

• Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA 
• Date: Saturday, December 11, 2021
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Warriors vs 76ers betting preview

Injuries

Warriors: Klay Thompson SG (Out), James Wiseman C (Out), Andre Iguodala SF (Questionable).
76ers: Ben Simmons PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Warriors are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games with teams with a winning straight-up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. 76ers.

Warriors vs 76ers picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Not only is Golden State tied for the NBA's best record at 21-4, it's also the NBA's second-best ATS team at 17-7-1, behind only the expectations-defying Cleveland Cavaliers. 

In related news, the Warriors own a 12.9 net rating, an NBA-best by a wide margin over second-place Utah, who thumped Philadelphia 118-96 in the Sixers' last game. 

That blowout coming on Philly's home court is emblematic of a disturbing early-season trend for the Sixers, who are normally a dominant home team in front of their rabid fans. At just 5-6 SU on the season (and an NBA 28th-ranked 3-8 ATS), they're actually better on the road so far. 

So, shred the supposed home-court advantage for a Sixers team that, before its Utah drubbing, had struggled to win comfortably, going 3-1 in a four-game stretch where they posted just a +8 aggregate net margin against much lesser teams than Golden State. Joel Embiid has been his dominant self for the most part, but finds a bad matchup here. 

The Warriors don't have any dominant rim protectors who can challenge Embiid on the low block, but they're the NBA's best defense (by a mile) for a reason. The Dubs have an extremely intelligent scheme, including the NBA's single smartest defender in Draymond Green. They'll front Embiid in the post and make life hell for him to even get the ball, let alone where he's most comfortable. 

Golden State can also go small with a five-out lineup and force Embiid out of his comfort zone as a defensive anchor. The "Death Lineup" helped pioneer the NBA's small-ball movement, and Steve Kerr is one of the best at deploying those mismatches. 

If GSW's defense is able to keep Philly's All-NBA center limited, we don't see a way the Sixers' supporting cast can stay competitive here. Tobias Harris will have to deal with the much-improved-on-defense Andrew Wiggins, while Tyrese Maxey's production has fallen off a cliff since Embiid returned. 

These are the Warriors — they win games and win them by a lot. Back them to do it again here.

Prediction: Golden State -3 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

These two sides are a confounding combo for total betting, with the total set at 212.5, well below the 219.9 the Warriors and Sixers combine to average. 

A couple of key reasons for the discrepancy:
- Philadelphia plays at the NBA's slowest pace.
- Golden State is the NBA's best defensive team.

But Golden State's identity as a defense-first team kind of belies the fact that it's a deep scoring roster with one of the NBA's highest-grade weapons in Stephen Curry. The Dubs prefer to play at a fast tempo (fifth in pace) and against a team like Philly that has slipped considerably overall on defense (20th, vs. second last year), this could turn into more of an up-and-down tempo than the books anticipate. 

Philly will do its best to bore in on offense and milk the clock while running the offense through Embiid, but Golden State is enough of a tempo-setter that this game should see the Over against a low total. 

Prediction: Over 212.5 (-110)

Best bet

The Warriors are one of the NBA's best ATS bets this season, including a 6-3 mark on the road. They're facing a team whose best threat can be somewhat neutralized (as relative a term as that is against Embiid) and hasn't had its usual edge at home. 

Each of Golden State's last seven wins has come by double-digits, and while its 116-96 waxing of the Sixers on November 24 came with Embiid still sidelined, it's tough to make up a 17-point margin in a single game against the league's best defense.

Aside from an anomalous loss to the Spurs a week ago, the Warriors have been arguably the most consistent team in the NBA this season, and fading them in their current form requires some serious contrary evidence, which we just don't have for this matchup. 

Pick: Golden State -3 (-110)

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