Desperation matters.
The San Antonio Spurs showed the power of desperation in Game 2 of the last round, walloping the Timberwolves by 38 points to even the series.
In fact, that model informs how I break down the Victor Wembanyama odds before Game 6 on Thursday, May 28.
Victor Wembanyama prop pick for Game 6
Victor Wembanyama best bet: Victor Wembanyama Over 1.5 threes (-180 at bet365)
That is a significant amount of juice. Let’s not deny that.
If uncomfortable with it, then bet 3+ threes at +170. That is in my portfolio tonight.
At either mark, the logic is as much about Wembanyama’s improved shooting at home as it is about his greater volume shooting at home. Both aspects have been true all three years of the San Antonio Spurs’ superstar’s career.
This season, Wembanyama shot 37.9% from deep at home, compared to 31.3% on the road, while taking 5.9 threes per game at home compared to just five per game on the road.
Look at this series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Wembanyama is 4-for-14 (28.6%) from beyond the arc in three games in Oklahoma City compared to 5-for-12 (41.7%) in two matches in San Antonio.
Defenses hardly bother Wemby’s deep shots. Simply enough, he is too tall.
His shot comes down to comfort and rhythm. Those are improved at home, creating distinct value in tailing him tonight.
Victor Wembanyama same-game parlay
Amid all the headlines of Wembanyama’s 41-point, 24-rebound Game 1 in the Western Conference Finals, we overlook that he had just 27 points in regulation. Realizing that, Wembanyama has fallen short of this points prop in four of five regulation games, even though he hit multiple 3-pointers in two of those four contests.
While that is counterintuitive, the reality is that Wembanyama affects a game in so many ways that his scoring does not always come via expected patterns.
Obviously, one of those ways is via blocking shots, and taking the Under on Wembanyama’s blocks prop is actually meant as a compliment to him. There will be fewer and fewer shots for him to challenge as the Thunder steer clear of the rim when he is around.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
