The Minnesota Timberwolves rode a generational defense to this stage a year ago and still sometimes show that intensity. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder had the best defense in the NBA this season.
However, Minnesota’s best approach to slowing Oklahoma City’s offense may be its own scoring, thus preventing transition opportunities. Meanwhile, OKC needs to find its shooting if it wants to keep up with a pack of howling chuckers.
My Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks expect more points tonight with tip at 8:30 ET, especially from deep.
Timberwolves vs Thunder SGP - May 20
Over 218
Mike Conley Over 1.5 threes
Lu Dort Over 1.5 threes
This total has climbed from opening at 215.5 on Sunday and spending Monday at 216. Has it climbed too far? Possibly, especially given the Oklahoma City Thunder are on two days rest coming off a grueling seven-game series against the best player in the world.
But then again, a series with an underappreciated emphasis on 3-point shooting could create some lofty totals.
No one in the NBA encouraged corner 3-point attempts more often than Oklahoma City’s defense. It was intentional, and against teams with lesser shooting options, it worked out, thus opponents hit those corner threes at only the 19th-highest rate in the NBA.
But the Minnesota Timberwolves have options, most notably Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Donte DiVincenzo. Then again, neither has shot well this postseason.
Enter Mike Conley. He closed out Minnesota’s win last round by shooting 9-for-20 in the final four games. He made 49.4% of his corner threes in the regular season, 44 of 89. Conley will get his looks against Oklahoma City, and when he does, he is likely to make it.
That last thought cannot be said of Lu Dort. He shot 41.2% from three in the regular season while taking 5.8 per game as a key piece of the Thunder’s offense. But in the postseason, he has made just 28.0% of his 6.8 attempts per game.
The Grizzlies and Nuggets were content to let Dort shoot, and it is not a reliable shot, this regular season aside. So the defensive approach makes sense, and it is one the Timberwolves are likely to tempt, as well.
Dort may go 2-for-6, and Minnesota would be glad for that. Such a showing would help this same-game parlay in two legs, and it fits perfectly within a likely game design.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
