After the Minnesota Timberwolves lost in five games in last year’s Western Conference Finals, Anthony Edwards reportedly went around the locker room telling his teammates they would be back in the conference finals this year. He was a man of his word.
Unlike last year, Minnesota is a hefty underdog now. The Oklahoma City Thunder were the most dominant team in the NBA this season, historically so. They should be the favorites.
But my Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks expect Oklahoma City to struggle in Game 1, partly due to the letdown inherent to winning a Game 7. Tip comes at 8:30 ET on Tuesday, May 19.
Who will win Timberwolves vs Thunder Game 1?
Sportsbooks favoring the Oklahoma City Thunder by 7.5 points is a bit shocking. A hefty -305 moneyline is even more absurd. Think about that on a logical level: Minnesota wins this game only one out of four times, even with Oklahoma City coming off two days' rest following a seven-game series?
This section is titled “Who will win?” and not “What moneyline provides better value?” That latter answer would clearly be the Minnesota Timberwolves.
A strong argument can be made that they will win this game, value aside. Minnesota has had six days to recover from beating the Warriors. The Timberwolves should be the freshest team remaining in the playoffs. They have gone 7-1 against the spread in their last eight and 7-1 outright in that same stretch, including winning as six-point underdogs in Game 5 at Los Angeles.
Since March 1, Minnesota has gone 25-6 outright and 21-10 ATS. That is not an arbitrary date; it is when Julius Randle returned from an adductor strain. Doubt the apparently underappreciated Timberwolves with this rest advantage at your own peril.
Timberwolves vs Thunder prediction
My best bet: Timberwolves team total Over 104.5 (-115 at bet365)
Ascribe as much credit for this to Steph Curry as you wish, the raw fact is that Golden State had the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA following the All-Star Break. The combination of James Butler and Draymond Green worked on that end, pacing the Warriors to a defense 1.1 points better per 100 possessions than even the Thunder’s following the All-Star Break.
And the Timberwolves solved that defense in the final three games of last round. In one 50-minute segment bridging late Game 3 through the first three quarters of Game 4 — before a blowout turned sloppy in the fourth quarter — Minnesota scored 137 points. In Game 5, it scored 121 and very clearly let off the gas in the fourth quarter thanks to a 21-point lead entering the series-clinching frame.
Through those final nine quarters (plus two minutes), the Timberwolves shot 35-of-72 from deep, 48.6%. They could do just about nothing wrong, except turning over the ball. That was a significant problem, committing 21 turnovers in each of the final three games.
Turnovers could doom Minnesota against Oklahoma City, undoubtedly a focus from head coach Chris Finch and his staff during these six days of rest. But otherwise, the Timberwolves’ offense found its rhythm against a defense arguably as good if not better than the Thunder’s.
With Oklahoma City possibly worn out from last round — playing Nikola Jokic exhausts everyone — Minnesota may even try to push the pace in Game 1.
Regardless, the Thunder typically force opponents to shoot 3-pointers — No. 3 in the NBA after the All-Star Break at 46.2% in 3-pointers attempted against frequency. Right now, that is a risky strategy against the Timberwolves.
Timberwolves vs Thunder same-game parlay
Timberwolves team total Over 104.5
Timberwolves to record the highest scoring quarter
Naz Reid Over 1.5 threes
Playing Minnesota to have the highest scoring quarter in this game is both correlated to the Timberwolves team total Over 104.5 and a nod toward what should be a Thunder letdown. Whether it is a psychological comedown or simply physical fatigue, it is only logical to expect Oklahoma City to be a bit worse for wear from Game 7.
Adding Naz Reid to hit at least two 3-pointers is simply good practice. Reid is not shooting as much in these playoffs as Minnesota would like, another probable coaching point from the near-week off.
The Timberwolves would like him to shoot more in part because he has hit 46.7% of his 3-pointers this postseason, taking 4.5 per game. As the Thunder rely on a disciplined and extended shell to keep opponents out of the paint, Reid can shoot over the top of it to put an initial crack into that defense.
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Timberwolves vs Thunder odds
Timberwolves vs Thunder live odds
Timberwolves vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +7.5 | Oklahoma City -7.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota +245 | Oklahoma City -305
- Over/Under: Over 215.5 | Under 215.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- These two never met with both full rosters available in the regular season, so comparing this spread to any from then becomes tricky. Counterintuitively, Oklahoma City won and covered while without Chet Holmgren on New Year’s Eve, while Minnesota went 2-1 outright and 3-0 ATS in three meetings without Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, and Donte DiVincenzo in February.
- The Timberwolves have exceeded expectations in the playoffs, going 8-2 ATS, while the Thunder are just 4-7 ATS.
- This total of 215.5 is 12 points lower than the last two meetings between these two, a reflection of playoff intensity more than anything else.
Timberwolves vs Thunder trend
Minnesota has hit the Over on its Team Total in seven of 10 games this postseason, clearing it by 3.2 points on average, even when including the three Unders. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Thunder.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Tuesday, 5-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Timberwolves vs Thunder latest injuries
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